Job Market Shifts

Before the Great Recession, the only time the long-term unemployed made up more than 25% of jobseekers in the postwar era was in 1983, during the S&L crisis. Since then, it's happened three times – most recently in December. What's going on? A dynamic labor market used to be the hallmark of the United States. Economists looked down their noses at countries like France, where a significant minority stayed unemployed for years while the majority had jobs for life. The constant churn in the United States was a sign that the economy always generated new opportunities for all kinds of workers. This clearly isn't the case anymore. Since data on hiring and firing rates became available in 2000, their sum – a rough measure of churn – has never been lower than in the past couple of years. The labor market is starting to look more, how do you say, French? I see two main causes for this transformation. One is the pace of technological change. When there's a rapid shift in the kinds of jobs available, it's harder for workers to adapt. It's especially hard for unemployed workers, since the best training usually happens on the job. So when technological revolutions start to arrive more frequently, the gap in skills between the employed and unemployed can widen. The other cause is inequality. We've seen enormous increases in wealth inequality over the past few decades, and we know that wealth affects access to opportunity. People with less wealth have fewer connections who can help them to get new jobs, and it's also harder for them to start businesses of their own. So they're more likely to stay unemployed. In most states, unemployment benefits end after 26 weeks. This means the long-term unemployed aren't receiving benefits, but they haven't stopped looking for jobs, either. They want to work; they just can't find the right fit. They need the labor market to return to its more dynamic self. To get there, we'll need to level the playing field for economic opportunity and help workers keep up with technological progress. More change is coming to the economy, so these are urgent matters. I'll have more on the problems and solutions in this Friday's High Yield Economics newsletter.

5 Ways To Recession-Proof Your Career (& Create True Job Security): Context: The Myth of Job Security Everyone wants "job security." But one company can't offer that. People make six figures at an F500 one day, only to be laid off the next. If you want security that doesn’t care what the market is doing? You need to create it for yourself. 1. Network Daily Where do you want to be 3 years from now? Identify that, then find people who can help you get there. Make a point to reach out / touch base with one per day. Networking is like investing. Long time horizons without withdrawals usually lead to the largest returns. 2. Create & Share Content Building a "personal brand" can feel cliché. But having an audience that follows and supports you is the best form of job security. It makes you more valuable to future employers. And you can leverage it to build multiple income streams. 3. Create Multiple Income Streams You never want all of your eggs in one basket. Find ways to create new income streams by: - Consulting - Coaching - Starting a side hustle - Buying assets Even if it’s small to start, having multiple streams gives you security and stability. 4. "Job Search" 2x / Year Recruiters reaching out to you? Say yes once in a while. See a job post you’re interested in? Apply for it. Even if things are good now, you never know when that can change. You also don’t know what you’re missing if you never explore. 5. Plan Ahead As You Grow When you do land that next job? Plan for the future. Don’t just take that new raise and buy a better car or nicer clothes. Allocate some of it to an emergency fund. Use some of it to invest in income-generating assets. Pay your future self first.

Layoffs are all over the news. Don't panic. Just take action. After 25 years of coaching people at all levels through multiple economic cycles, I've seen this pattern before. You can't control the macro environment or what your company will decide to do. But you can control how you position yourself. Here are 6 strategies that can help you build your job security right now. 1️⃣ Make your work obviously valuable Look for high-impact projects. Get involved with initiatives that everyone knows are critical and strategic. The question isn't "Am I doing good work?" It's "Am I working on what matters most?" 2️⃣ Communicate your impact consistently Send simple updates to your manager about what you're working on and the results you're driving. Mention what you’re working on to others. You don’t have to oversell. Facts strategically shared are more powerful than any pitch. 3️⃣ Take the next step Rather than handing off problems, think through the next step. Don't say "I'm stuck. What should I do?" Instead say, "I'm stuck. Here's what I think my next few steps are." Your manager can redirect you, but you've positioned yourself as proactive. 4️⃣ Invest in the skills that make you hard to replace Master the tool no one else wants to learn. Or build expertise in the area the company is betting on. Then invest the time to own it. 5️⃣ Build relationships inside the company Being known and liked often matters more than your performance. It may not be fair, but it's reality. Strong internal relationships help you survive layoffs or find new roles within the company. 6️⃣ Strengthen your external network Stay connected with former colleagues and industry contacts. Offer to help them. Make time for coffee meetings. This keeps you current on market opportunities and gives you options when you need them. Here's the test I give my clients to gauge network health: How many calls would it take you to land a new job? If the answer is more than 10, start building relationships now. 👉 Pick one. Start this week.

According to our Labor Market Tightness Index, the U.S. labor market has stopped softening in recent months. What lies ahead? Recent weeks have brought negative shocks to both labor supply and labor demand. Labor supply shock: Stricter immigration policies have reduced the availability of workers in industries like construction, healthcare, and hospitality. Labor demand shock: Layoffs of federal workers and contract eliminations are cutting jobs, with growing overall policy uncertainty further dampening hiring. Both factors point to weaker job growth, but their impact on labor market tightness is uncertain—it depends on which shock is larger. Here’s my take: In the next couple of months, the demand shock is likely to dominate, loosening the labor market. However, as the federal government’s restructuring stabilizes, this effect will fade. Beyond mid-2025, labor supply constraints from immigration policies will persist, likely for at least the next four years. This means that as the demand shock diminishes, the labor market will tighten again. #labormarkets #unemployment #government #immigration

𝗦𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗪𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗛𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱—𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝗨𝘀𝗲 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗱𝗜𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝘆 Most people treat LinkedIn like a job board. They scroll, apply, and pray. But the truth? 80% of jobs are filled through networking, not applications. If you’re serious about landing your next role, here’s how to make LinkedIn work for you: 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗦𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗣𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗵—𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹 Your headline should do more than state your title. It should highlight your value. ✔️ Bad: “Marketing Associate” ✔️ Good: “Helping brands scale through data-driven marketing” Your About Section? Skip the buzzwords. Write like a human. 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗪𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗩𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 Drop thoughtful comments on posts from industry leaders, hiring managers, and recruiters. A single insightful comment can get you in front of the right people without a single application. 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗟𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗮 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿 (𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗜𝗳 𝗬𝗼𝘂’𝗿𝗲 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗬𝗲𝘁) Share lessons from your work, industry insights, or even failures. A recruiter is more likely to notice your knowledge, not your job status. 𝗨𝘀𝗲 𝗗𝗠𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝘆 (𝗡𝗼 “𝗛𝗶” 𝗠𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗮𝗴𝗲𝘀!) Don’t send generic “Any openings?” messages. Instead: ✅ Research the company ✅ Engage with their posts ✅ Send a personalized DM offering value Example: ❌ Bad: “Are you hiring?” ✅ Good: “I saw your team is expanding into AI-driven marketing. I recently worked on a similar project—would love to exchange insights!” 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿, 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗛𝗮𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿 Referrals increase your chances by 4x. Instead of blindly applying, connect with someone inside the company before submitting your application. 𝘔𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘓𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘦𝘥𝘐𝘯 𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘺. 𝘞𝘪𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘓𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘦𝘥𝘐𝘯 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮. #JobSearch #LinkedInTips #Networking

Corporate Layoffs Continue to Ease U.S. employers announced 45,849 job cuts in June, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, down 53% from the 97,006 announced in May. Layoff announcements also fell 4% from June 2025, marking the lowest monthly total since December 2025 and the fourth month this year in which job cuts have come in below their year-earlier level. The Challenger Job Cuts report tracks announced corporate layoffs rather than actual job losses. Because companies often announce workforce reductions before they occur, the report provides an early look at how employers are responding to changing business conditions and can offer insight into broader labor market trends before they appear in official employment data. At a headline level, today's report suggests employers remain reluctant to reduce headcount despite continued economic uncertainty. That interpretation is broadly consistent with yesterday's JOLTS report, which showed job openings unexpectedly increased even as hiring remained relatively subdued. Taken together, the data point to a labor market where employers are holding onto existing workers while becoming more selective about adding new ones. Fewer layoffs do not necessarily mean hiring is accelerating, but they do suggest businesses are not broadly moving toward workforce reductions. The industry breakdown reinforces that conclusion. Technology accounted for nearly one-third of all announced job cuts this year, while artificial intelligence was cited as the leading reason for workforce reductions for the fourth consecutive month. Rather than signaling broad-based weakness across the economy, the concentration of layoffs suggests employers continue to restructure in specific industries undergoing rapid technological change. That distinction matters for consumers. A labor market with relatively few layoffs is very different from one experiencing widespread job losses. Workers may still feel less confident about changing jobs or replacing one if they lose it, but today's report suggests most employers are adapting hiring plans without broadly reducing their existing workforce. It is another sign that the labor market continues to evolve, even as the economy remains resilient enough to avoid the kind of widespread layoffs typically associated with recession. At Havas Edge, we follow Challenger job cut announcements because changes in employer layoff plans often provide an early signal of shifts in business confidence and labor market conditions. Understanding whether companies are retaining, hiring, or reducing workers helps us better anticipate changes in consumer confidence, spending behavior, and the broader economic outlook.

🔎 Find Hidden Job Opportunities with LinkedIn Search 🔎 🚀 Don’t wait for job postings! Some of the best opportunities come from building relationships before roles even go live. Here’s how to leverage LinkedIn Search to get ahead and uncover those “hidden” jobs: 1️⃣ Use Boolean Search Combine keywords to focus your search. For example: “Marketing AND AI” to find marketers working in AI. “Product Manager NOT Junior” to filter out entry-level roles. “Software Engineer AND Hiring” to locate people hiring in your field or those open to referrals. 2️⃣ Apply Advanced Filters Looking for potential mentors, collaborators, or managers? Use filters like Location, Industry, and Experience to narrow down the right connections. 👉 Example: Searching “Sales Director AND Healthcare” with the “Location: Boston” filter helps you find senior leaders in your target area. 3️⃣ Expand Beyond Your Immediate Network Use LinkedIn’s search to find second-degree connections or people not actively posting but who could be key to your goals. 👉 Example: Look for “VP AND Engineering” to identify leaders in engineering who may not post often but could provide a referral or advice. 4️⃣ Try Job Title + “Hiring” Searches Sometimes the best leads come from individuals actively hiring. Use combinations like “Product Manager + Hiring” or “Software Engineer + Open to Referrals” to locate managers and recruiters seeking talent. 💡 Pro Tip: Experiment with different keywords and filter combinations to refine your results. LinkedIn search can be a powerful tool for proactively finding opportunities. What’s your favorite LinkedIn search trick? Share it below! 💬👇 #LinkedInSearch #HiddenJobs #NetworkingTips #CareerAdvancement #JobLeads

There’s been a lot of speculation in the past two weeks following the election about the incoming administration and the changes we’re likely to see in the workplace and labor market. I've been reflecting on what these shifts could mean for the #futureofwork — and the potential implications are both complex and concerning. We may be entering a period of significant policy changes, including labor regulations, immigration, and workforce classification. Among these, one stands out for its sweeping potential impact: large-scale deportations and visa restrictions. This graph from The Conference Board speaks volumes, underscoring the critical role of immigrant workers in sustaining the U.S. labor force and economy. Policies that remove millions of workers could have severe consequences, such as: 1️⃣ Labor Force Shrinkage: Deporting a large number of workers would significantly reduce the U.S. labor force, exacerbating labor shortages in industries like agriculture, construction, and hospitality—industries already struggling to fill roles. 2️⃣ Economic Contraction: Fewer workers mean less productivity, reduced output, and slower economic growth. The data clearly shows that large-scale deportations would directly impact GDP, with sharp declines that the economy would struggle to recover from. 3️⃣ Pace Matters: Sudden, mass deportations would cause immediate and significant economic harm. Even a slower approach wouldn’t shield the economy from lasting damage to labor force participation and growth potential. 4️⃣ Policy Intersections: This highlights the interconnectedness of labor policies and economic outcomes. Policymakers must consider how such measures could unintentionally worsen labor shortages, drive inflation, and destabilize workplaces. To business leaders, this is a moment to engage your workforce. Open communication about potential changes builds trust and fosters resilience in times of uncertainty. As we prepare for what’s ahead, it’s crucial to have informed, data-driven conversations about how policies will impact businesses, the economy, and the workforce. Let’s ensure the decisions we make support a stable, sustainable future of work. What are your thoughts? How can leaders balance these changing economic realities to ensure a stable, sustainable workforce? I would love to hear your thoughts!

Your LinkedIn profile isn't a resume. It's your positioning tool. Most professionals treat it like a formality. They copy and paste job titles. Add a few vague sentences. And hope the right recruiter stumbles across it. But if you're actively job searching or want to attract opportunities, you need more than a presence. You need intentional visibility. Here’s how to make your profile work for you: 1. Start with a headline that positions, not just describes Avoid default titles. Instead, show what you do and who you help. Think: “Helping companies scale through finance strategy” instead of “Finance Director.” 2. Make your ‘About’ section a pitch, not a paragraph This is your career story. Highlight your strengths, what you’re known for, and the problems you solve. Keep it human, clear, and forward-facing. 3. Use your experience section to show impact, not just activity Swap bullet points for results. What changed because you were in the role? Use numbers, outcomes, and key wins. 4. Make it searchable Use industry-relevant keywords naturally throughout your profile. This helps recruiters find you. 5. Include a clear call to action Let people know how to connect, refer, or message you. Don’t make them guess. Your LinkedIn profile shouldn't just say "I exist." It should say "Here's why I matter—and where I’m headed next." When done right, it becomes your most powerful tool for career growth, whether you're job searching or not. If you updated one part of your profile today, what would it be? Tell me in the comments.