Educational Data Analysis

Why some kids thrive and others quietly fall behind. A new longitudinal study uncovered four parenting profiles and only one consistently supports both academic and emotional development. Here’s what they found: 1. Autonomy-supportive parents These parents set clear rules and allow for independent decision-making. They communicate expectations—but also validate emotions. This was the only group whose children showed gains in both well-being and achievement over time. 2. Controlling parents Think strict, directive, rule-bound—without much room for dialogue. These kids often performed well academically but had lower self-worth and motivation. 3. Cold parents Low on both structure and emotional warmth. This group’s kids showed the worst outcomes, both emotionally and academically. 4. Inconsistent parents Rules and emotional support were unpredictable. Not surprisingly, these children were more likely to experience anxiety and poor performance. The takeaway? Adolescents thrive when they’re given structure and space. Rules and respect. Guidance and autonomy. For any parent, educator, or leader this is the balance to aim for.

Who says you can't have validity and reliability in longitudinal case studies? Not me! A trope about qualitative work is that validity and reliability are not possible. That's simply untrue. Despite publications to the contrary, I still hear the trope repeated again and again by quants. So. As a reminder. Christopher Street and Kerry Ward, PhD wrote a nice paper on evaluating (and ensuring) validity and reliability in longitudinal case studies more than a decade ago. They point out that authors can rely on the attributes of temporality, e.g., the longitudinal form of the data, to estimate validity. By considering (1) how to segment data into time chunks, (2) length of timeline, and (3) what time period should be in the data, authors can provide a convincing case for the validity of their analysis. As a bonus, they include some thoughts on time reliability e.g., would a coder have coded data the same way. If you are doing qualitative, longitudinal work, this is a good paper to have in your backpocket when questioned about validity and reliability! Give it a look! The citation: Street, C. T., & Ward, K. W. (2012). Improving validity and reliability in longitudinal case study timelines. European journal of information systems, 21(2), 160-175. The link: https://lnkd.in/e_ZVYtdw The abstract: Management Information Systems researchers rely on longitudinal case studies to investigate a variety of phenomena such as systems development, system implementation, and information systems-related organizational change. However, insufficient attention has been spent on understanding the unique validity and reliability issues related to the timeline that is either explicitly or implicitly required in a longitudinal case study. In this paper, we address three forms of longitudinal timeline validity: time unit validity (which deals with the question of how to segment the timeline – weeks, months, years, etc.), time boundaries validity (which deals with the question of how long the timeline should be), and time period validity (which deals with the issue of which periods should be in the timeline). We also examine timeline reliability, which deals with the question of whether another judge would have assigned the same events to the same sequence, categories, and periods. Techniques to address these forms of longitudinal timeline validity include: matching the unit of time to the pace of change to address time unit validity, use of member checks and formal case study protocol to address time boundaries validity, analysis of archival data to address both time unit and time boundary validity, and the use of triangulation to address timeline reliability. The techniques should be used to design, conduct, and report longitudinal case studies that contain valid and reliable conclusions.

Does teenage career development lead to better employment outcomes? 78% of 172 longitudinal studies say yes! As part of my contribution to the recent @Educationandemployers paper Work Experience: Past, Present, Future (https://lnkd.in/eQ2qJ5sy), for the first time I retraced my steps and did some counting. I looked at the 80 new analyses of data from longitudinal cohort studies in multiple countries undertaken by the OECD Career Readiness team and combined these with existing studies which team identified from across the research literature. The review took a broad perspective looking at analyses which looked at whether better employment outcomes in young adulthood could be linked to forms of career exploration (job fairs, job shadowing, career conversations, pathway programmes), workplace experience (including part-time working and community volunteering) and future thinking (career certainty, alignment, instrumental motivation). Outcomes tested for related to lower unemployment/NEET rates, higher wages, greater job satisfaction. Any individual study has its limitation. Looked at collectively, the results provide a powerful endorsement of the value of teenage career development particularly involving employer engagement. You can find the table and the discussion around it on pp.61-67 of the paper. There's a lot of other good material in the paper as well!

Have you ever wanted to know... ❔ How many students work while enrolled in college? ❔ Whether first-generation students are more likely to stop out or transfer? ❔ How students piece together grants, loans, work, and family support to pay for college? ❔ What students' first few years of postsecondary education actually look like? The newly released Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS:20/22) data from NCES can help answer those questions—and many more. Why wait for a study to come out when you can explore the data yourself? BPS gives us the opportunity to better understand the experiences behind the numbers by following first-time beginning students through their early years of postsecondary education. One of my favorite things about this longitudinal study is that you don't need to download complex datasets or be an experienced researcher to begin exploring. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) #DataLab tools make it easy to ask questions, create tables, and examine differences across student populations, institution types, financial aid receipt, enrollment patterns, persistence, and more. If you work in higher education - whether in institutional research, financial aid, student affairs, enrollment management, academic affairs, or policy - I encourage you to spend a few minutes exploring the data for yourself. You may find answers to questions you've been asking for years....or discover some new ones worth pursuing. BPS Website: https://lnkd.in/e-NH95bi NCES DataLab: https://lnkd.in/ef4Ey9xZ

Pathways to Adolescent Executive Function in Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Children: The Role of Early Skills and Learning Environments Great to see this paper out with colleagues Donna Berthelsen A/Prof Jessa Rogers GAICD Kristin Laurens Stuart Ekberg Tirritpa Ritchie Emma Carpendale Lauren Piltz - based on our work with Footprints in Time: The Longitudinal Study of Indigenous Children. Understanding how to strengthen the developmental pathways of Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people is critical if we are to address the long-term impacts of colonisation and ongoing inequities. While systemic change is essential, this research highlights the powerful role of early developmental skills — particularly self-regulation and executive function — in supporting positive life outcomes. Drawing on longitudinal data from over 470 Indigenous children in the Footprints in Time study, we found that early capabilities matter. Preschool skills such as visual–motor coordination and early literacy, along with strong self-regulation in the early school years, were associated with better executive functioning in adolescence. Importantly, family and environmental contexts — including home learning experiences, social support for parents, and access to early education — shape these early capabilities, but are not equitably available in all regions. Taken together, the findings point to the importance of strengths-based approaches that recognise families as children’s first teachers and support early learning in the home. Ensuring equitable access to high-quality early childhood services, strengthening family support, and investing in core developmental skills offer powerful pathways to support the wellbeing and future opportunities of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people. Open access paper here. https://lnkd.in/g7MdPc2S

Our colleague Christina Stephens, PhD, has a new paper in ECRQ, which is a collaboration with wonderful experts in ECD in the U.S. Pre-kindergarten classroom experiences and child outcomes through first grade. Margaret Burchinal, along with co-authors Robert Pianta, Arya Ansari, Mary Bratsch-Hines, Lora Cohen-Vogel, NIEER’s Christina Stephens, Ellen Peisner-Feinberg, Virginia Vitiello, and Jessica Whittaker leveraged longitudinal data on pre-k attendees to assess lasting associations between classroom experiences and child outcomes. The study also accounted for the potential benefits of classroom experiences in the two years following pre-k. Results suggested high quality teacher-child interactions and teachers’ use of responsive conversations have benefits for children not only in pre-k, but also into kindergarten and first grade. https://lnkd.in/e46RqXXp

A terrific pierce of work … A longitudinal study of 22,000 adolescents found that some of the strongest school-based practices associated with student flourishing were perhaps surprising: Laughing with other students, experiencing a sense of playfulness, strengthening social relationships, teachers using humor in class, and regular social interaction with teachers and staff. The research team looked at about 50 school-based practices. The practices with the greatest impact tended to center on social relationships and humor. That matters because flourishing is not only about academic performance or mental health in isolation. It includes happiness and life satisfaction, mental and physical health, meaning and purpose, close social relationships, and character and virtue. For schools, one implication is simple but important: students need time and space to connect, laugh, play, and build real relationships with peers and trusted adults. Watch the presentation from Christian Schools Australia, Christina Hinton and Brendan Case: https://lnkd.in/gVNVakbE

𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁-𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗚𝗮𝗶𝗻, 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴-𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗣𝗮𝗶𝗻: 𝗘𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗶𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝘕𝘦𝘸 𝘱𝘢𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘊𝘚𝘈𝘌 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘳𝘶𝘯 𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 At a time when major donors are slashing education budgets, we must ask: what do we lose when we cut investment in schooling? There’s a growing body of evidence that suggests we lose long-term economic growth, better health, delayed fertility, and a shot at intergenerational mobility. And some new papers at this year’s CSAE add to that evidence base.:  • In Ghana, Amanda Awadey found that a reform that added a year to senior secondary school raised test scores and increased university enrolment. In the DRC, Bienvenu Matungulu and Tom De Herdt found that the biggest gains in adult income came from finishing secondary education. These studies provide compelling evidence that secondary schooling is an engine of economic growth.   • Lee Crawfurd used longitudinal data from Indonesia to track children over 17 years. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation improvement in foundational literacy and numeracy at age 10 is associated with 4–8% higher adult earnings. When kids learn more, it seems like they earn more. And yet, education funding is under pressure. The UK’s aid to education is declining fast. US contributions seem to be wiped out. Many bilateral donors have gone quiet. Few philanthropic foundations are stepping up. Where is the noise? Education is a long-term investment. The payoff won’t be visible next quarter—but it will be in the next generation. Now is not the time to walk away from education and let down the next generation. It’s time to double down on children’s futures and help them thrive at school. (PS watch this space for new updates coming soon on CGD's Return to Learning Initiative - my work with Jack Rossiter and Justin Sandefur - which is tracking long-term outcomes from education experiments to establish whether there is a causal relationship between better foundational literacy and lifelong health, wealth and happiness).

#Smart 3kids from poor #families start off strong, but something changes in secondary #school. #Researchers tracked kids who scored in the top 25% on #cognitive tests at age 5 and compared outcomes based on family #income. They found that high-achieving #children from poor #families kept up with their #wealthier peers all the way through #primary school. But between ages 11 and 14, right when students transition into secondary school, those from low-income backgrounds started to fall behind in multiple areas. Their school performance dropped, they felt less motivated, and their #behavior and #mental #health worsened more than those of wealthier students with similar early test scores. The study, which followed nearly 19,000 children from birth to age 17, suggests that it's not ability holding these kids back, it’s what happens around them. Kids from wealthier families often have more resources, stable home environments, and access to better schools and extracurricular #opportunities. However, children in lower-income households may face more #stress, fewer learning supports, and greater risk of mental health struggles or bullying, all of which can erode their progress over time. The #researchers were careful to account for factors like differences in early test scores, so the findings reveal that the decline isn't about talent, it’s about #environment. By the end of primary school, these bright but disadvantaged kids were still holding their own. But in secondary school, without the same level of support or opportunity, many began to struggle. The paper, “What happens to bright 5-year-olds from poor backgrounds? Longitudinal evidence from the Millennium Cohort Study,” was authored by John Jerrim and Maria Palma Carvajal.