User Research For New Markets

This map will likely spark debate, and that’s exactly why it matters. It shows the major ethnolinguistic and cultural groups across Africa, a reminder that the continent’s borders, drawn in European boardrooms, often ignore what’s true on the ground. From a business and development perspective, this is critical. Because you’re not selling into countries. You’re engaging with communities. Understanding regional identities, like the Hausa influence across West Africa, or how Swahili unites parts of the East, can make or break your market entry strategy. This map reminds us: ✅ Africa is not one place. ✅ Culture matters more than just translation. ✅ Success requires local knowledge and humility. Now, to be clear, I see some questionable depictions here. Not everything on this map is perfectly accurate. And I’m sure the comments will be lively (feel free to jump in). But from my perspective, much of what’s shown reflects real social and cultural dynamics that we often overlook in boardrooms and market reports. Doing business in Africa? Start by knowing who you're doing business with, not just where. #AfricaBusiness #CulturalIntelligence #MarketEntry #EthnolinguisticAfrica #DevelopmentMatters #MrExportToAfrica #AmplifySales #DoingBusinessInAfrica #LocalizationNotJustTranslation

Nations’ capabilities in frontier technologies will drive their fortunes. There is deep danger of this accentuating global wealth polarization, but there is also a real opportunity for developing countries to accelerate faster than the leaders. An excellent UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report on frontier technologies globally lays the current state and how we can shape a more inclusive global future. (Link in comments) Some of the key points: 🌍 $16 Trillion Prize, Running Fast Frontier‑tech revenue is set to jump from $2.5 trillion in 2023 to $16.4 trillion by 2033, with AI alone reaching $4.8 trillion and IoT $3.1 trillion. For developing countries, that growth window is large but time‑bound; early adoption can secure export niches before global standards solidify. ⚠️ Innovation Bottleneck Just 100 firms command over 40% of global business R&D, and half of that spend is in the United States. Such dominance skews AI toward capital‑intensive models, risking a loss of labor‑cost advantage for lower‑income economies. 🔧 Three Levers for Catch‑Up UNCTAD highlights a feedback loop: better compute and connectivity enable bigger data sets; richer data improve local algorithms; skilled talent then scales usage, justifying more infrastructure outlays. Grounded national plans should target these levers in parallel, not sequentially. 🤝 Practical Adoption Rules Field cases distil four rules: design for weak infrastructure; mine non‑traditional data; keep user interfaces simple; and form partnerships for expertise and finance. Examples range from offline crop‑diagnosis apps in Colombia to battery‑powered X‑ray units in South Sudan. 🚀 Evidence of Momentum Brazil, China, India and the Philippines already punch above their income class on UNCTAD’s readiness index, while developer numbers in Nigeria, Ghana and Indonesia are growing 30–45 % a year. Coupled with broader calls for inclusive AI governance, these signals show that emerging economies are positioned not just to adopt AI but to help shape its global uptake.

Campaigns are not one-size-fits-all. Especially when you're talking to customers across different regions. Combining marketing teams into a single unit that looks after multiple geographies bring efficiency. But it also introduces complexity—because what works in New York won’t always land in New Delhi. So, how do you really connect with customers across such diverse markets? You test. Run localized market experiments to uncover: What benefits resonate most in Texas versus Toronto. How value propositions shift between Sydney and Singapore. What creative actually feels culturally relevant (not just translated). Here’s how you get it right: - Test benefits, messaging, and cultural fit on live platforms like Meta or LinkedIn using Heatseeker. - Use behavior-driven insights—CTR, CPA, engagement metrics—to guide decisions. - Stealth test where needed to mitigate risk and gather unbiased feedback. - Optimize campaigns iteratively to scale what works, fast. The result is campaigns that speak the language-beyond just words. Data-backed insights into what drives customers in that specific local. A scalable playbook for delivering localized campaigns that convert. Your streamlined team now has the tools to drive success.

For years, investors viewed emerging markets as the high-yield, high-risk corner of global fixed income. Yet the data and market performance now point in the opposite direction. As the chart below illustrates, IMF figures show that advanced economies carry much heavier debt burdens than emerging markets, averaging around 120 percent of GDP compared with roughly 70 percent in developing nations. The old assumption that “developed” meant fiscal stability no longer holds. Deficits remain stubbornly high across the US, Europe and Japan, while political gridlock and ageing demographics weigh on long-term balance sheets. By contrast, many emerging markets have pursued orthodox and disciplined policies. Central banks in Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia acted early to tighten monetary conditions after the pandemic, preserving credibility while developed peers delayed. Inflation targeting, improved external buffers and local investor depth have strengthened resilience. The results are showing. As the Financial Times recently highlighted, Africa’s markets are leading one of the hottest emerging-market rallies in years. Stocks in Nigeria, Kenya and Morocco have returned more than 40 percent in dollar terms this year, buoyed by record metals prices, currency stabilisation and structural reforms. Ghana’s and Zambia’s markets have more than doubled as gold and copper exports surged, while local investors have driven renewed confidence in domestic equities and bonds. Despite these shifts, emerging market debt still trades at a substantial yield premium to developed market equivalents. That gap increasingly reflects habit rather than fundamentals. With global savings declining and EM bonds gaining greater index representation, capital is likely to gravitate toward economies with healthier demographics, sounder fiscal positions and exposure to real assets. The world’s traditional risk hierarchy is turning on its head. The idea that “risk-free” equals “developed” may no longer fit the data.

Why Emerging Economies See AI as an Opportunity… and Rich Countries Often See It as a Threat?! Spending my summer holidays here traveling across Southeast Asia, and especially in Thailand, I’ve had the chance to experience firsthand the culture, energy, and mindset here. In the past year, I’ve read many studies — including the one in this chart — showing that countries like Thailand, Indonesia, China, and Malaysia are consistently at the top when asked: “Will AI create many new jobs in your country?” Meanwhile, richer Western nations, including my own Italy, often rank near the bottom. Why? My reflections, now reinforced by what I’ve observed locally: • Mindset of Growth vs. Mindset of Preservation – In emerging economies, AI is seen as a lever to leapfrog development, create new industries, and expand the pie. In mature economies, the conversation often focuses on protecting what already exists. • Demographics and Ambition – Younger populations with high aspirations tend to view technological disruption as a chance to accelerate their career paths. Older populations may see it as a threat to stability. • Baseline Expectations – If job markets are already constrained, any new industry (AI included) is perceived as a net positive. Where employment is relatively secure, change often triggers resistance. • Cultural Adaptability – I’ve noticed a greater openness to experimentation and entrepreneurial risk in these fast-growing economies, paired with fewer legacy processes holding them back. This difference in perception is not just an interesting cultural contrast, it’s a strategic signal. Countries embracing AI as an opportunity will likely invest more aggressively, move faster, and create the conditions for innovation to thrive. Extremely interesting, at least for me… both as a person passionate about AI… and also as an Italian

Two years in Brazil. And he still thought Brazilians were fake. I met a French executive who had been living in São Paulo for two years. In a candid moment, he told me he had learned to “pretend to be friends with everyone” to fit in. He said it like it was a survival tactic. Like he had cracked the code. He hadn’t. Two years in Brazil, and he was still operating from the wrong conclusion. What he called fakeness is warmth as a social contract. In Brazil, relational proximity is not a personality trait — it is a cultural infrastructure. It is how trust is built, how rooms are read, and how business actually moves. You don’t opt out of it and call it efficiency. You learn it, or you operate blind. There is no single Brazil. Every region, every community, every individual is shaped by a different set of references. It is not one market. It is not one culture. It is not one behavior. And no number of years on the ground substitutes for the decision to actually read the environment. Most international executives arrive in Brazil with two things: a thesis about the market and a calendar full of meetings. What they rarely arrive with is the cultural intelligence to understand why a room reacts the way it does, why a negotiation stalls for reasons that never make it into the minutes, and why a team that seems aligned on Monday has already moved in three different directions by Friday. That gap is not a personality problem. It is an architecture problem. And it is expensive. Leading teams in Brazil. Scaling operations. Building something that doesn’t collapse the moment you leave the room. None of that is possible without understanding the environment you are entering — not as an outsider observing, but as someone who has built the framework to operate inside it. Architecture First. Acceleration Second. Without cultural intelligence built into the structure, the market reads you before you read it. And by then, the cost of learning is already on the table. #BrazilMarketEntry #CulturalIntelligence #InternationalExpansion #BusinessInBrazil #CrossCulturalLeadership #GlobalStrategy #ArchitectureFirst #BrazilBusiness #MarketEntry

Stop assuming customers everywhere want the same things. Too many times I had have this conversation in different countries, “Why not just copy the UX/UI of Monzo? I love it and it’s perfect!” But perfect where? In London? Riyadh? Jakarta? Designing for customers in different regions isn’t a matter of copy-paste. Cultural values, societal norms, and daily behaviors profoundly shape how people interact with #banking apps. What works in the UK, where customers may focus on last transactions and budgeting, might fall flat in Saudi Arabia, where users value have a overall view of customers' #products and promotions. And in #SoutheastAsia? The focus shifts again, with apps emphasizing flexibility, payments, and #personalization. This isn’t about making apps “look good.” It’s about understanding the jobs customers want done, their #painpoints, and their habits. The differences are subtle but very significant. What #banks put front and center on the homepage must reflect what matters most to customers in that particular market. A #design that delights someone in Europe might frustrate someone in Asia. If you’re working in a new market, don’t bring assumptions, bring curiosity. #CX #innovation #marketresearch #behavioralanalytics #banking #FinTech

This chart, based on IMF projections for 2026, shows how the center of global economic momentum continues to shift eastward — with India, China, and Saudi Arabia leading the pack. India stands out with a forecasted 6.2% GDP growth, nearly double the global average of 3.1%, underscoring its position as the engine of global expansion. Its growth is driven by domestic consumption, infrastructure investment, and a steady inflow of foreign capital looking to diversify away from China. China’s 4.2% growth signals stabilization after years of property-sector distress and sluggish external demand, while Saudi Arabia (4.0%) continues to benefit from diversification efforts under Vision 2030, combining energy market strength with rapid development in non-oil sectors. By contrast, developed economies show structural stagnation — with the U.S. at 2.1%, and major European economies (Spain, UK) below 2%. This divergence illustrates how tight monetary conditions, aging demographics, and fiscal constraints are limiting Western growth potential. Taken together, the chart reflects a rebalancing of global economic gravity: the fastest-growing economies are concentrated in Asia and the Middle East, while advanced economies face a decade of subdued expansion — a pattern that may redefine global trade, investment flows, and geopolitical influence well beyond 2026. Source: Trade Brains

Great journey maps start from the intersection of user touchpoints. A customer journey map shows a customer's experiences with your organization, from when they identify a need to whether that need is met. Journey maps are often shown as straight lines with touchpoints explaining a user's challenges. start •—------------>• finish At the heart of this approach is the user, assuming that your product or service is the one they choose to use in their journey. While journey maps help explain the conceptual journey, they often give the wrong impression of how users are trying to solve their problems. In reality, users start from different places, have unique ways of understanding their problems, and often have expectations that your service can't fully meet. Our testing and user research over the years has shown how varied these problem-solving approaches can be. Building a great journey map involves identifying a constellation of touchpoints rather than a single, linear path. Users start from different points and follow various paths, making their journeys complex and varied. These paths intersect to form signals, indicating valuable touchpoints. Users interact with your product or service in many different ways. User journeys are not straightforward and involve multiple touchpoints and interactions…many of which have nothing to do with your company. Here’s how you can create valuable journeys: → Using open-ended questions and a product like Helio, identify key touchpoints, pain points, and decision-making moments within each journey. → Determine the most valuable touchpoints based on the intersection frequency and user feedback. → Create structured lists with closed answer sets and retest with multiple-choice questions to get stronger signals. → Represent these intersections as key touchpoints that indicate where users commonly interact with your product or service. → Focus on these touchpoints for further testing and optimization. Generalizing the linear flow can be practical once you have gone through this process. It helps tell the story of where users need the most support or attention, making it a helpful tool for stakeholders. Using these techniques, we’ve seen engagement nearly double on websites we support. #productdesign #productdiscovery #userresearch #uxresearch

My new Forbes article: “India Is Building The Electric Economy Without The Fossil Detour”. This graph, inspired by Ember's newest analysis, might be one of the most important energy transition visuals I’ve seen in years. 💚 Not because it predicts the future with certainty. But because it challenges one of the deepest assumptions in economic history: That countries must first go through a long fossil-fuel phase before becoming modern and prosperous. For more than a century, the development model looked like this: 🌿 Biomass ⚠️ Fossil fuels ⚡ Electrification That was the path of the West. It was also China’s path, scaled at breathtaking speed. But India may now be showing the world something different. A new analysis from Ember suggests India could be taking an “electrotech fast-track” toward prosperity, moving much more directly into the electric age through: ☀️ Solar 🔋 Batteries 🚗 EVs ⚡ Electrification The numbers are extraordinary: • India reached a 5% solar share at around $9,000 GDP/capita • China reached the same milestone at around $23,000 • At equivalent stages of development, India is already generating around 5.5x more solar and wind electricity per person than China did This does NOT mean India has solved the energy transition. Coal still plays a major role. Huge grid, storage and industrial challenges remain. But the economics of energy have changed. Solar, batteries and electric technologies are now cheap enough that emerging economies may no longer need to lock themselves into deep fossil fuel dependency before becoming modern and industrialized. That changes everything. Countries may no longer need to follow the smoke to find prosperity. They can follow the wire. Read the full Forbes article in the comments 👇 #ElectroTech #WeDontHaveTime #MakeScienceGreatAgain #WeCanDoIt #India #China