Seasonal Merchandise Planning

Earlier this week we opined on the degree to which seasonality still exists in the apartment sector. The short answer is yes, seasonality still exists but there remains an echo effect from the pandemic. The peak (summer) months aren't garnering the same share of annual demand as history would tell us; instead, 1Q and 4Q are seeing a larger share of calendar year demand. Now, that's true at the national level. But as you might expect, market variances can be large! And with 2Q approaching its final month, we thought it would be a good exercise to look at what share of a typical year's demand happens by quarter, by market. Tons to unpack here so let's get to it. Graph shows the nation's 50 largest markets and what share of a given calendar year's worth of demand happens in a specific quarter. Then the markets are shaded darker (more seasonal) to lighter (less seasonal). If you're in Detroit or Cleveland, then you're familiar with the 2Q demand surge. In fact, more than 100% of your annual demand happens in 2Q. How can a quarter be greater than 100%? That means your other quarters (particularly 1Q/4Q) see negative absorption (or move-outs). From an applied perspective, Midwest markets see the lion's share of their annual demand figure happen in 2Q. So your leasing strategy should really be tailored to converting leads into leases during this window because if you miss the boat, then it's going to be hard to convert non-existent leads from the winter months. As you might expect, some markets buck the trend overall. West Palm Beach in fact actually sees 2Q as the weakest part of the year! Perhaps it's not so much that 2Q is 'weak' in West Palm Beach more so than it is the reverse seasonality... lots of your demand happens in the winter months due in part to snowbirds moving into the warmer weather areas during the winter. Interestingly enough, Miami is the nation's least seasonal market (at least as defined by this particular analysis). Peak quarters in 1Q/2Q see about 30% of the annual total. Meanwhile, the "off" season if you even want to call it that is 3Q which captures about 20% of the annual total. So with a +/-10% absorption swing from peak to trough, Miami is one of the few markets where seasonality actually doesn't come into play all that much. Phoenix (+/-20% quarterly swings); Raleigh/Durham and DFW (+/-25%) are two others without significant on/off seasons.

See how easily you can project monthly volumes, predict your business's revenue patterns with precision and plan your production and budget accordingly. Understanding and calculating the seasonality of your revenue can transform how you manage your financial planning. Why Measure Average Volume Demand? Measuring the average volume demand helps you identify patterns in your demand over different periods. By recognizing these patterns, you can adjust your forecasts and budgets to reflect more accurate expectations, preventing potential issues like overcapacity or underproduction. Steps to Calculate Average Seasonality: 1. Collect Data: Gather historical revenue data for multiple years. 2. Calculate Monthly Averages: Determine the average revenue for each month across the years. 3. Compute Overall Average: Find the overall average revenue across all months and years. 4. Determine Seasonal Indices: Divide each monthly average by the overall average to get the seasonal index for each month. Benefits of Applying Seasonal Indices: • Prevent Overcapacity: By anticipating peak periods, you can manage resources better and avoid production bottlenecks. • Optimize Production: Ensure that production schedules align with demand, reducing waste and improving efficiency. • Enhanced Forecast Accuracy: More precise forecasts lead to better financial planning and decision-making. This technique is not only useful when creating monthly budgets and forecasts, but also when crafting long range plans. When we apply the monthly seasonality to the yearly projection, we are able to achieve a granularity that will show us more clearly other aspects of our plan that we are not able to see from the yearly perspective. The capacity constraint is one example. In this case, I have this insight even years ahead to either increase capacity, improve capacity distribution along the year (if possible) or even plan better the volume production. To help you get started, I've created an Excel template for calculating seasonality. You can download it from the link below and integrate it into your budgeting process. https://buff.ly/44WU3tV

Summer doesn’t just change what people buy—it rewires how they buy. In FMCG, we often treat summer as a promotional season. But it's more than that.  It’s a consumer behaviour reset. When temperatures cross 40°C, consumption patterns don’t just shift—they shrink, simplify, and speed up. Here’s what we’re seeing this season across the market: 1.⁠ ⁠Appetite drops, but craving for “refreshment” spikes - Consumers move away from heavy meals and spicy flavours. Instead, they reach for cooling formats—cold dips, functional beverages, yogurt-based snacks, and citrus profiles.  It’s less about food. More about feeling better. 2.⁠ ⁠Pack size matters more than ever - In quick commerce, the ₹30–₹80 price band dominates. Trial sizes, mini-packs, and single-serve formats outperform family packs. Brands still pushing ₹350+ jars or large SKUs without a summer use case? Tough sell. 3.⁠ ⁠Refrigeration = shelf presence - General trade outlets have limited cold storage. A retailer may choose between stocking a cola crate or your cold dip. If your margin, rotation, or visibility isn't worth that fridge space--you’re out. 4.⁠ ⁠Discovery becomes functional - In summer, shoppers aren’t browsing—they’re replenishing.  What’s fast, chilled, and fits their current “need state” gets reordered. What isn’t, gets forgotten.  This is where operational agility trumps pure marketing. A few brands are getting this right:  • Paper Boat → Leading seasonal relevance with regional drinks like Jaljeera, Aam Panna  • Sleepy Owl Coffee → Built “cold coffee” as a daily ritual, not just a beverage  • RAW Pressery → Lean SKUs, chilled delivery, strong impulse appeal  • Lahori Zeera has cracked this too Summer isn’t just a marketing season. It’s an operating filter.  If your brand doesn’t work at 37°C—on the shelf, in storage, or in mindset—is it designed for summer? What’s one shift you’ve made to adapt to seasonal behaviour? Would love to hear how others are reading summer demand. #fmcg #summer #beverage #drinks #food #retail #ecommerce

Most retailers place promotional and seasonal spaces in the worst locations in the store. Not intentionally. But the result is the same. Here is what goes wrong: • Promo space at the entrance. The entrance is a decompression zone. Customers walk straight past. • Seasonal space wherever permanent categories were willing to move. The Christmas range next to cleaning products because nobody gave up a better spot. • End caps sold to the highest paying supplier, not placed where they intercept the right customer mission. • Same promo locations every cycle. Regular customers stop seeing them entirely. • Nobody measures what those locations generated versus what they displaced. Understand the difference first. Promo space intercepts a customer journey with an unplanned purchase trigger. Seasonal space temporarily expands a category with a defined peak demand window. Both need completely different location logic. Here is how to decide correctly: 1. Calculate the space needed before touching the floor plan. Promo space: 5% to 10% of total selling floor area. More than that and the store feels like a market. Seasonal space: count the SKUs, multiply by average product width for minimum linear meters, add 20% to 30% for optimum facings, then divide by shelf levels to get floor space needed. Example: 60 SKUs at 9cm average width needs 5.4 linear meters minimum. On a 4 shelf fixture that is roughly 1.6 meters of floor length. 2. Place promo space at natural pause points. Mid aisle breaks. Department transitions. Final meters before checkout. Never the entrance. Never a dead zone. 3. Place seasonal space adjacent to its permanent home category. Ramadan ranges near dry goods. Back to school near stationery. The right mindset converts at a higher rate. 4. Rotate promo locations every 3 to 4 cycles. Familiarity kills conversion. 5. Measure every location after every cycle. Sales per linear meter versus the permanent category baseline it displaced. Promo and seasonal space is the most valuable and most wasted real estate in most stores. The difference is whether someone calculated where it goes or whether it ended up there by default. How does your organization currently allocate promotional and seasonal space? #SpacePlanning #RetailStrategy #CategoryManagement #RetailOperations #Planogram #MacroSpacePlanning

Seasonal brands don't win by chasing December. They win by being visible before December. I worked with a luxury brand heading into their busiest season. Instead of scrambling in November like everyone else, we started in September. The strategy wasn't complicated: → Content that answered questions people ask before they spend real money → Smarter internal pathways so high-intent traffic didn't wander off mid-journey → AI-legible structure (because ChatGPT is now part of the buying process) → Link building to make sure visibility gains actually stuck The results? – 7.5K clicks and 1.4M impressions across peak season – AI overview citations started showing up in Ahrefs – Orders, average order value, and items per order all increased year over year – December revenue peaked in the final week, right when New Year buying behavior hits But here's what mattered most: January didn't crash back to the old baseline. The site didn't just borrow attention during the holidays. It kept some of it. Most seasonal businesses treat peak season like a sprint. Show up in November, hope for the best, disappear in January. The ones that win? They're already positioned when demand arrives. If your business has a "busy season," the prep work starts months before. Not weeks. Months. PS. What's your busy season, and when do you actually start preparing for it?

I've noticed something about holiday social media that most founders miss. The secret isn't just pushing "holiday content."  It's understanding how your customers 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 experience this season. Here are 3 approaches I recommend to my CPG clients: 1. Leverage transition moments Those early sunsets when everyone's decorating for the holidays?  That's your opportunity.  Show your product naturally fitting into these moments.  If you sell tea, show it being enjoyed while putting up lights.  If it's skincare, feature your night routine as part of winter evening self-care. 2. Address seasonal challenges Winter's shorter days affect everyone's energy and mood.  Don't just sell your product - show how it supports people through these real challenges.  Whether it's your morning supplements or energizing drink, connect it authentically to these shared experiences. 3. Go beyond basic gifting Instead of just labeling your product "the perfect gift," tap into genuine gift-giving moments.  Show the relief of finding the right present.  Capture the joy of self-gifting after hosting duties. Make it real. The brands seeing real growth this season aren't just decorating their content with holly. They're meeting their customers in moments that matter. Want to discuss your brand's holiday strategy? Let's talk - comment below or DM me.

Here's secret few marketers know: The real opportunity isn't black Friday It's Q5: Dec 1 to Jan 1 Few brands pay attention. Fewer know how to use it. That’s where you win. Here’s the insider play: → The quiet window After the BFCM blitz, many advertisers pull back, so CPC dips But people are still researching and planning. That's the best time for you to “buy the dip”. Invest when ad costs are more favorable, and competition is less. → B2B isn’t fully offline Your audience is in the office, but not slammed. They’re receptive to ideas and learning. That's the best time to stay on top of mind for Q1. Don’t push demos. Build relationships, credibility, and relevance. → Shift the goal Q5 isn’t about conversion. It’s about engagement, list-building, and mindshare. Invest time and budget in campaigns that plant seeds for Q1, not just flash sales. ↪ How to win in Q5 - Keep campaigns alive after Cyber Monday: Move from “deal frenzy” to “last-minute gifting” or “still time to shop.” - Retarget wisely: Use post-BFCM campaigns to capture warm traffic. People who visited but didn’t convert? Retarget them with seasonal messaging. - Brand-first campaigns: Focus on awareness, education, and value-driven content. Discounts are optional. - Plan for post-Christmas dip (Dec 26 → Jan 1): People aare reflective and planning for the New Year. Your messaging should meet them there. - Use smart budget pacing: Don’t burn everything on BFCM. Save some for quieter weeks to dominate attention when others sleep. Brands who treat peak season as a cycle, not a one-off event, capture more value. If you ignore Q5, you’re leaving low-hanging fruit on the table while others burn their budget in the peak chaos. This December window isn’t a lull. It’s a strategic gap and your moment to do deep brand work, and audience build. Leverage it, and you’ll start Q1 ahead of competitors who were too busy chasing the Black Friday chaos.

Supply Chain Snippet (31/n) In today's dynamic environment, businesses need 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝘀 to optimize inventory, reduce costs, and meet customer expectations. A 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹-𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 helps organizations stay ahead by anticipating demand shifts and making data-driven decisions. Here’s a step-by-step approach to building a robust forecasting framework: 1. 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 – Start with gathering historical sales data, customer orders, and any other relevant demand indicators. 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴.. 2. 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗲 & 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘇𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 - Remove anomalies, outliers, and errors to prevent skewed forecasts. Use statistical techniques like time series analysis or regression analysis to uncover trends, seasonality, and demand patterns. 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗸𝗲𝘆! 3. 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘀 - Leverage a mix of 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 (statistical) and 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 (expert judgment) techniques to improve accuracy. 𝗔 𝗵𝘆𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝗲𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗮 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹-𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁. 4. 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘀 – Compare forecasted vs. actual demand over time and refine your models to enhance accuracy. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗸𝗲𝘆. 5. 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗽𝗼𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗘𝘅𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 – Unexpected events like weather disruptions, political shifts, or supply chain shocks can influence demand—𝗯𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲! 6. 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄 & 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 – Demand patterns change with market trends, customer behavior, and economic shifts. Regularly review forecasts, gather feedback, and refine models to maintain accuracy and relevance.  An 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 is a strategic advantage, enabling better decision-making, optimized inventory, and improved customer satisfaction. #SupplyChain #DemandPlanning #SupplyPlanning #OperationsManagement #BusinessStrategy #Forecasting #InventoryManagement #Analytics #SafetyStock #CostOptimization #Logistics #Procurement #InventoryControl #LeanSixSigma #Cost #OperationalExcellence #BusinessExcellence #ContinuousImprovement #ProcessExcellence #Lean #OperationsManagement

You’re not immune to seasonal dips. No brand is. But if your revenue completely disappears outside of Black Friday, your strategy is off. Here’s how to keep cash flowing year-round without discounting yourself into the ground: 1. Sell with the seasons. The calendar gives you 365 days of opportunity, not just Q4. Tap into summer essentials, winter upgrades, fall refreshes, and spring cleanouts. Prioritize seasonal relevance. 2. Ride the wave of real-time trends. Big brands plan months ahead. Smart brands move fast. Tie your marketing to sports events, cultural moments, and trending topics to stay relevant without discounting a thing. 3. Make old products feel new. Your audience doesn’t know your catalog like you do. Reintroduce past best-sellers, highlight what newer customers missed, and give old collections a fresh spin. What feels repetitive to you is brand new to most of your list. 4. Turn shopping into a game. People love a chase. Create mystery gifts, hidden discounts, or an “Easter egg” product that’s 60% off for those who find it. If you make buying fun, customers engage without expecting discounts. 5. Borrow another brand’s audience. Stop marketing in a vacuum. Partner with complementary brands for joint giveaways, co-branded drops, or content swaps. You both win without slashing prices. 6. Educate instead of discounting. Quiet months are the best time to teach customers how to use your products, why they matter, and what makes them better. A well-educated customer doesn’t need a discount to convert. 7. Sell more to the customers you already have. Cross-sell complementary products, bundle best-sellers, and use personalized recommendations. More revenue, no extra ad spend. Stop blaming the “slow season.” Most of your audience doesn’t see every email, and even fewer remember past campaigns. Reuse successful promos, past partnerships, and old drops with a new spin.  What feels redundant to you is brand new to most of your list.

Every year an owner says, “We’ll start pushing in November...” And every year it costs them double. Holiday success doesn't have anything to do with "luck" or "spend." Google’s peak window runs from October through January. So the ramp-up is part of the season. When you start early, you’re not being cautious, you’re giving the system time to learn while CPMs are still sane. The first part of the season should be about warming people up. Show them the story behind the product. Explain why it exists, describe the problem it solves. And do it way before they’re scrolling for discounts. So by the time November hits, you’ve already built familiarity, and every paid click works harder. When the offers roll out, keep them simple. Percentage off, dollar off, free shipping. The badge in Merchant Center will do more for you than any clever copy. People scan, they don’t decode. The rest is just staying adaptable: Inventory changes. Competitors drop prices. Google adjusts the auction. Keep your setup simple and your catalog accurate so you can adjust without undoing everything you’ve built. When it comes to Q4s, the work you do in October buys you cheaper conversions in November... And calmer nerves in December.