Community Impact Analysis

Fascinating new economic research shows Opportunity Zones have created far more housing than previously known (313,000 units) and at far cheaper subsidy cost than most people realize ($26k/unit) -- making OZs perhaps the most efficient, effective housing supply creation program in existence. I suggest we double down on what actually works, eh? The groundbreaking research was published yesterday by the Economic Innovation Group. The authors concluded that OZ are "dominating other housing tax incentives" in terms of production and efficiency. OZs provide capital gains tax benefits to incentivize long-term investments (10+ years) in designated lower-income neighborhoods. Among their findings: 1) Prior to the legislation, the neighborhoods that became Opportunity Zones had been "left behind" -- economically challenged areas seeing no housing supply growth for a decade. Since then, we've completed 313,000 new housing units across OZs nationally, with more still under construction. See chart below for an absolutely wild visual of this impact. 2) Opportunity Zone neighborhoods now outpace the national average in creating new housing supply. This is another crazy stat because "these are genuinely distressed communities," as one of the authors, Adam Ozimek, noted. He added that some reporting suggesting otherwise has centered around an "unrepresentative handful of outlier anecdotes." 3) OZs account for 48% of new housing in designated tracts, 16% across all low-income communities, and 4% of all new housing nationally. One of the report's authors, John Lettieri, wrote that "these are astonishingly large results" impacting not only urban areas, but also suburban and rural and in between. 4) At a subsidy cost of just $26k/unit, co-author Benjamin Glasner noted that OZs are "vastly cheaper than traditional housing subsidies" for taxpayers. "The results underscore that flexible, market-driven tax incentives can mobilize private capital, unlocking significant investment potential in distressed communities." 5) Why are Opportunity Zones so effective and efficient? Unlike other programs, OZ projects have a "by-right" qualification with no bureaucratic pre-approvals. It's a federal tax benefit that doesn't require approval from cities to tap into (other than standard permits etc. to build) or special connections to access. It turns out simpler is better and faster. We should incentivize the creation of things we need more of as society. We need more housing. So let's lean heavily on programs that actually work. And OZs clearly work well. Encouraging to see that HUD Secretary Scott Turner -- along with policymakers on both sides of the aisle -- want to extend and expand Opportunity Zones. Perhaps even to include for-sale homes in addition to rental apartments. Bottom line: Opportunity Zones, in Glasner's words, "may be the most effective pro-housing supply policy in America today." Let's double down on what actually works. #housing #apartments

Opportunity Zones 2.0 Over the last six years, Opportunity Zones have become a significant tool in driving investment into underdeveloped areas. It is estimated that OZs have attracted nearly $100 billion in private capital since their inception in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. The next Congress is likely to extend, if not expand, them. In our latest piece, Ross Baird, Michael Saadine and I believe it’s time to assess anew the rationale for this tax incentive, building on changing market dynamics and lessons learned. The original premise for OZs, backed by the Economic Innovation Group and Senators Cory Booker and Tim Scott, was that a generous tax incentive could entice investors to get out of their comfort zone and invest in distressed communities that are rarely the focus of private, return oriented capital. The rational for such investment remains strong, but market conditions have changed dramatically. 2025 finds us with significant development challenges, a downtown commercial real estate crisis, worsening housing challenges, growing industrialization in small communities and rising demand for energy. These market shifts require us to examine the best case examples from the first round — eg the use of OZs in San Antonio and Erie to regenerate downtowns, the broader effort by Opportunity Alabama to raise local OZ capital for broad effect. These dynamics and lessons make a case for reauthorization to enable a reselection of zones in certain cases, a preference for housing production and renovation and an integration of OZs with other public incentives. OZs represent a powerful tool for addressing some of the most pressing challenges facing urban, suburban and rural communities. With a little focus, Opportunity Zones 2.0 could be transformative. https://lnkd.in/e2H-EVPE

Yesterday, I saw what tomorrow holds for India—a future growing on the land of Mr. Nirmal Das Swami, a farmer in Rajasthan.   Through a government program, Nirmal transformed his 9 hectares of farmland into a solar powerhouse, generating 1.04 megawatts of clean energy.    The impact? Beyond his crops and income, it’s lighting up his entire community:   → Salim, a welding business owner, doubled his working hours and revenue—hiring 6 new workers. → Firoz, a flour mill owner, increased daily production from 500 to 1,000 kg and is employing more people. → Women farmers like Gita, Anju, and Ghisi no longer have to wake up in the middle of the night, the only time power was previously available, to irrigate their crops.   Daytime power has replaced erratic nighttime electricity, enabling livelihoods to thrive.   Rajasthan is proof that changing energy changes lives, especially in rural India.   Today, India is betting big on a just energy transition—by deploying 500 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030.    So far, they’ve achieved over 200 GW. Partnerships like the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP), of which The Rockefeller Foundation is a member, are paving the way for even greater innovation and impact. For example, GEAPP is supporting 59 solar plants like Nirmal’s, providing 108 megawatts in support of 30,000 farms and enhancing 64,000 jobs across Rajasthan.   This kind of work doesn’t just transform lives—it transforms entire communities.   This is more than a story of one village. This is the future of India.

The Opportunity Zone program isn't just continuing—it's about to get supercharged. I've made 3 trips to DC in the past 90 days, meeting with House, Senate & White House insiders about the "Big Beautiful Bill" and OZ 2.0. Here's what I'm hearing: THE NUMBERS THAT MATTER: OZ 1.0 delivered $84B in investment to 8,800 distressed communities and now accounts for 20% of ALL new market-rate apartment development nationwide. Policymakers want OZ 2.0 to be 3-4x the scale. GAME CHANGER #1: New Class of Investor The 180-day rule still applies to capital gains deferrals, but OZ 2.0 opens the door to ANY investor who holds 10 years—ZERO capital gains tax on new OZ profits. This creates floodgates for institutional capital. GAME CHANGER #2: Related Party Rules Relaxed Current owners of OZ land/buildings largely locked out of OZ 1.0? Not anymore. Make substantial improvements—bring new life to the asset—you're in. This unlocks massive local capital sitting on the sidelines. GAME CHANGER #3: The "OZ Exchange" Like a 1031 exchange but for OZs. Sell your completed project, roll proceeds into new OZ development, keep ALL tax benefits & holding period. No more being "trapped." Roll gains forward and stay in the game. EXPANDED GEOGRAPHY: New map coming with MORE zones. Governors designate 35% of low-income tracts (up from current), with 1/3 minimum rural. Current map stays through 2028, new map launches sooner. Developers won't lose momentum. Investors won't lose eligibility. THE TIMELINE: Reconciliation bill likely signed by Labor Day. House has passed their version, Senate negotiations ongoing. Expect a 10-year extension now—like 1031, permanence could follow in the next cycle. Historical context: Section 1031 wasn't made part of the tax code until the 1950s. WHY I'M OPTIMISTIC: The legislative stars are aligned like never before. After meeting with staff across party lines, the bipartisan support is real. Everyone sees what $84B did for communities—they want to multiply that impact. This isn't wishful thinking. There is real momentum in DC for OZ expansion. BOTTOM LINE: For investors paying attention, the next 6 months could define the next decade of community investment strategy. OZ 2.0 isn't just an extension—it's an iteration that fixes what 1.0 missed while keeping what worked. Questions about OZ investing? Drop them in the comments. #OpportunityZones #RealEstate

We wanted to know what it would really take to get health care to everyone. Here’s what we found. Half the world could gain access—for the cost of two coffees a year. The data is clear: 👉 $𝟲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿  is enough to scale professional community health workers—salaried, skilled, supervised, and supplied—so every family has care within reach. We laid out the evidence in The Lancet Group: ministers don’t need decades or billions. They need one term. Here's how we made the case: • Named the gap: 𝟰𝟯𝗠 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 short worldwide. • Showed the value: proCHWs are 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁-𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝟴𝟬–𝟵𝟬% of scenarios. • Quantified the return:ROI up to 𝟭𝟬:𝟭—even during conflict, pandemics, & climate shocks. • Proved it’s possible: 𝟱𝟬+ 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 have made proCHWs the norm. The takeaway? Keep treating CHWs as volunteers—and watch systems crumble. Adopt proCHWs—and watch systems bend toward resilience. It’s a no-regrets investment. And for ministers, a legacy that lasts generations. 👇 Full piece below. #ProCHWs #UHC2030 #GlobalHealth #HealthEquity

Technology could make a high school-educated community health worker function at the level of a primary care physician. That transformation isn't science fiction — it's happening now. I just sat down with Clinton Health Access Initiative, Inc.'s CEO Dr. Neil Buddy Shah who revealed breakthrough innovations reshaping healthcare delivery at the last mile. The most striking example? An $11 digital X-ray system that fits in a backpack, screens TB patients, and uses AI algorithms to read results at radiologist-level accuracy. But Shah's bigger vision goes beyond single innovations. He sees community health workers — often the only healthcare providers in remote areas — being upskilled through technology to deliver primary care-level diagnosis and treatment. The infrastructure is nearly there. What's your experience? Are you seeing AI and mobile tech actually reaching last-mile communities in your work — or is this still mostly happening in pilot programs? And for those managing health programs: would your organization be ready to shift from sending technical experts to training local workers with these AI-powered tools? If not, what's holding you back — funding models, institutional resistance, or concerns about quality control? #GlobalHealth #AI #Development

New blog post: a recap of the latest state of the evidence about #OpportunityZones. Takeaways: 1) Massive program (>$100B) 2) High share of Zones getting some investment (2/3rds) 3) Notable bias in where $ goes--3/4th of $ goes to already highly invested places, to areas already appreciating/attractive for investment 4) Very little $ to rural or truly disinvested Zones 5) Program's "purpose is to spur economic growth and job creation in low income communities" 6) No/minimal effects on small businesses, jobs, poverty, business lending, venture capital, or other economic growth indicators 7) Minimal financing goes to operating businesses (~2%), mostly OZs finance market rate rental and other commercial real estate 8) Real estate findings mixed/muddled. No effect appears on single-fam. Commercial RE effects appear non-existent or limited. May be an effect on multifamily, but papers with different modeling approaches coming to different conclusions. 9) Many OZ projects would have happened w/o the OZ subsidy, which helps explain why the program is highly used and expensive, but also has little economic effect on LMI places. https://lnkd.in/enKC8JDy

BREAKING: Amazon Web Services (AWS) plans to spend $12bn on Louisiana data center campuses, developed by STACK Infrastructure AWS just announced a major multi-site data center buildout across Caddo and Bossier Parishes, developed by Stack Infrastructure. Beyond the headline number, the way Amazon is structuring the infrastructure commitment is what's really worth noting. 💸 $12B total investment across Caddo and Bossier Parishes 👷 1,500 construction jobs, 👷♂️ 540 permanent jobs & 1,710 additional community positions 💦 $400M invested in public water infrastructure ☀️ 200MW of new solar capacity added to the Louisiana grid 💧 Water cooling used less than 13% of the year, air cooling otherwise Amazon is fully self-funding all required energy infrastructure and upgrades via local utility Southwestern Electric Power Company (SWEPCO). They're not waiting for utilities to catch up they're writing the check themselves. On water, a genuinely interesting model. Verified surplus water only, minimal cooling reliance, and a $400M investment in public water infrastructure. That last piece changes the conversation with local governments and regulators. This is part of a pattern that's accelerating fast. Amazon has now committed $10B in North Carolina, $15B in Northern Indiana, and $3B in Mississippi. And northwest Louisiana is also home to Meta's Hyperion campus up to $27B one of the largest single data center projects ever announced. With Amazon and Meta both anchoring northwest Louisiana, SWEPCO is about to serve some of the most power-hungry customers on the planet. Can regional utilities actually scale fast enough or will self-funding become the new normal?"

I often talk about communities being crucial to social innovation but how do we actually amplify that? Back in 2017, I worked with the New Economics Foundation on a pilot project that did exactly that. We trained six local residents from one village to become community researchers - trusted, well-known people who already had deep connections in their area. Together, we co-designed everything: • the topic (the role of community anchor organisations) • the questions • the interview process • and even the analysis itself. Over two weeks, those six volunteers spoke with neighbours, shopkeepers, and local groups - gathering stories, data, and perspectives that no external consultant could have accessed alone. When we came back together to review the findings, something powerful happened. The data wasn’t just rich, it was real. People had been open and honest because they trusted who was asking. The result? • Far deeper insights for policymakers. • New research skills for local people. • And a lasting asset for the community - data they could now use for campaigns, funding bids, and their own planning. It also made me wonder… What if every consultation or research project was co-produced in this way? What if communities were paid partners in the insight process, not just participants? That’s something worth exploring. You can read the original report here: https://lnkd.in/eTXKvGW8 And I’m curious - have you seen examples of community-led research in action? How did it change the outcomes? #CoProduction #CommunityPower #DoingWithNotTo #SharedPower #CommunityLed #PaulStepczak