Communication Industry Trends

Tariff Hikes, Voice & SMS Packs: Insights from HCES Data on Consumers and Operators What does the latest Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) tell us about the state of India’s telecom sector? Published by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), the HCES data for FY2023-24 provides a detailed snapshot of consumption patterns, affordability, and expenditure trends across rural and urban households. In my latest article, I explore how this vital dataset highlights the impact of recent tariff hikes on mobile services and TRAI’s mandate for voice and SMS-only packs. What’s inside for you? Consumer Perspective: Understand how rising tariffs and affordability challenges are affecting rural and low-income households. Operator Analysis: Learn how Bharti and RJIO are positioned to benefit, while VI faces ongoing subscriber churn and financial strain. Policy Relevance: Discover why TRAI’s directive on voice and SMS packs is critical for economically weaker segments and non-smartphone users. Sector Challenges: Explore how government policies, such as inflated spectrum pricing, are reshaping the telecom landscape and impacting all stakeholders. Whether you’re a consumer wondering about the cost of connectivity or a professional in the telecom industry, this article provides data-driven insights into the challenges and opportunities shaping the sector’s future. #TelecomTariffHike #HCESData #VoiceAndSMSPacks #MOSPI #TRAIRegulation #ConsumerAffordability #IndianTelecom #BhartiAirtel #RelianceJio #VodafoneIdea #BSNL #TelecomPolicy #MobileServices #DigitalInclusion #SpectrumPricing

The telecoms winners of the next decade won’t be the ones defending voice revenue. They’ll be the ones who built for data from the start. The signal is getting harder to ignore. South Africa’s operators carried 21.5% more voice traffic in 2025, yet earned R10.4 billion less from mobile services overall (#TechCentral, 4 April 2026). At the same time, prepaid voice revenue fell 7.6% while prepaid data revenue rose 7.7% to R42.1 billion. That tells us the customer has already moved. #WhatsApp didn’t kill communication. It changed what people believe they should pay for. That matters because a data-first operator is built around a simpler economic model. Lower product complexity. More #digital self-service. Less dependence on legacy billing structures. Lower cost to serve. When your network, channels and customer proposition are designed for always-on connectivity rather than minutes and SMSs, you’re closer to where demand is actually growing. The same trend is visible in fixed broadband. Fixed internet and data revenue grew 16.1%, and fibre subscriptions passed three million for the first time (TechCentral, 4 April 2026). The market is rewarding operators that are aligned to usage, not nostalgia. Too many telcos still treat OTT players as the enemy. I see them differently. They are proof that demand hasn’t disappeared; it has simply migrated. The real strategic question is no longer how to protect legacy revenue. It’s how quickly operators can redesign their business around the economics of data. #nexiosouthafrica

The telecoms industry is quietly going through a major shake-out. Across 5G, RAN, optical and even software, a growing number of vendors are pulling back, downsizing or exiting stage right altogether. The problem doesn't seem to be innovation, it’s economics. Network investment has slowed, margins are thin, and many suppliers simply can’t justify staying in markets that aren’t growing. This is especially visible in RAN and Open RAN, where early optimism has run into harsh reality. Several well-known players have scaled back ambitions or walked away after failing to land enough large contracts. What’s striking is that this isn’t just hitting startups - established vendors are cutting jobs, restructuring or narrowing their focus as well. The impact is spreading up the value chain too. Chipmakers that once relied heavily on telecom are shifting attention toward data centers and AI, where demand and returns look far healthier. Meanwhile, consolidation is reducing choice in areas like optical transport and OSS/BSS, with fewer independent vendors left standing. All of this reflects a deeper issue: telcos are under relentless pressure to cut costs, ARPU is flat or falling, and infrastructure spend is increasingly hard to justify. The result is a smaller, more concentrated supplier ecosystem - which may make networks simpler to buy from, but raises questions about long-term competition and innovation.

There's a huge debate raging over whether we're seeing mobile data traffic still at high levels (30-40% pa), slowing down (trending to 10-20% pa), or plateauing (0-10%). My #6Greset co-convener William Webb is convinced that we're heading for zero, while many in the conventional #mobile industry are talking up ongoing large growth, usually in the hope of snagging more #spectrum or persuading policymakers to enact some sort of fee/tax on data volumes. I've even occasionally suggested myself that we might even see total mobile data traffic eventually start to fall, leading to the uncomfortable equivalent of economic deflation. This could be a risk if one of these occur: - #WiFi access becomes more automated and federated, in more places, perhaps because of #OpenRoaming or similar models - Something like AI-driven upscaling or semantic compression allows big flows like image and 4K video to be shrunk significantly - #FWA eventually becomes less popular, as #FTTP gets deployed more deeply The last point contains the main problem with all of these arguments. Fixating on a single number of petabytes or exabytes per year (or megabytes if you're still in the 20th century like CTIA) is a particularly poor way to examine the trends in mobile data. I've talked before about the need for more granular detail, such as separating out MBB vs FWA vs IOT statistics. There's also a clear need for understanding the mix of indoor / outdoor, or urban / rural, if we're going to make sensible decisions on future network capex by MNOs and others, or decide on suitable spectrum. At one level, this translates into a need for more data like the retail industry's "like-for-like" growth metrics, which strip out new service areas or newly built stores, to give genuine comparisons for investors. This would be hugely helpful in telecoms. Operators could take a sample of a million smartphone subscribers who have been customers for more than a year, and sayhow their average usage has changed. That would remove any effects from FWA, or new / churned subscribers, and instead show underlying "organic" growth more clearly. But the other thing that's missing is an idea of location. Some places have high (and maybe fast-growing) data use. Sports stadiums, where people have huge uploads and downloads, could be an example. Others may have flat or declining use, perhaps city centres as people work only two days a week in offices, or educational campuses where outdoor Wi-Fi is made available. It is notable that this week, T-Mobile US handed back much of its mmWave spectrum as it wasn't being used over large swathes of territory, and it was risking contravening its coverage commitments. If traffic is growing 30% in some places, and declining 10% in others, that's hugely important for a range of reasons - whether that's around 5G monetisation, vendor opportunity, spectrum policy or investor sentiment. A single aggregate growth number means nothing - the detail is important.

From Telco to Techco: Trend, Hype, or the Industry’s Last Real Pivot? For years, telecoms have cycled through grand narratives: from voice to data, from dumb pipe to smart pipe, from 4G to 5G. Each promised new value, yet most operators still rely heavily on commoditized connectivity. Now the newest rallying cry is everywhere: Telco → Techco. But is this just another slogan, or a real strategic shift with substance? The pressure to evolve is real. Connectivity alone is being priced like a utility, while hyperscalers and digital-first players capture most of the value in cloud, AI, content and applications. At the same time, enterprise demand for IoT, edge computing, cybersecurity, cloud networking and AI-ready infrastructure is exploding. Someone has to build, integrate and operate all of this — and telcos could be that someone. But only if they change. Becoming a Techco is not about slapping “AI” on marketing slides. It means transforming the core of the business: 
1. From connectivity to platforms and solutions — managed cloud, security, IoT, digital services.
2. From legacy stacks to cloud-native architecture — enabling speed, modularity and automation.
3. From telco culture to tech culture — data-driven decision-making, agile delivery, new talent.
4. From price-driven competition to value-driven differentiation — solving enterprise problems, not just selling gigabytes. Some operators are showing what this could look like. Asian players like SK Telecom are embedding AI across networks and building new digital platforms. European and Middle Eastern operators are pushing into fintech, cloud services and smart-city ecosystems. US giants are repositioning around fiber, enterprise solutions and AI-ready infrastructure. In most cases, markets respond positively when operators demonstrate real execution — not just ambition — with improved investor confidence and more “tech-like” valuations. Yet the industry remains split. Many telcos still struggle with legacy systems, slow change cycles and talent gaps. For them, “Techco” risks becoming just another chapter in a long book of unfulfilled transformations. THE LEARNING MOMENT Is Techco the telecom industry’s first credible path to real growth in a decade — or simply the latest strategic buzzword? Which ever side you are on, standing still is NOT an option
And which operators do you believe are truly crossing the chasm?

Telco Capex Trends: At a Crossroads or Just a Minor Setback? I recently came across an intriguing report from Analysys Mason that got me thinking about the future of CAPEX in the telecom world up to 2030. It seems like we’re looking at a downturn in investment for both fixed and mobile services. The reasons? A mix of economic ups and downs, rising costs of borrowing money, geopolitical tensions, and a bit of hesitation to pour funds into new tech. This predicted change feels like a stark contrast to the investment frenzy we saw during the pandemic. What's more, it looks like the next wave of CAPEX growth might not come from the usual telecom players but from others in the ecosystem, like Towercos, data center providers, and big enterprises. And with 6G still looking like a distant dream with its eyes set on a 2030 debut, it's a critical moment for our industry. This brings us to a big question: Are we just seeing a temporary reaction to the tough times and the mixed feelings about 5G making money, or is this a sign of what's to come for telecom? Personally, I feel like we’re reacting more to the moment than looking ahead. Despite the doubts, 5G is being picked up faster than anything we've seen before, and the demand on telecom networks as essential infrastructure is only going up. This means our industry needs to keep pushing the envelope on providing services that are not just fast and reliable but top-notch. Keeping investment low just doesn’t fit with how the telecom industry is built. One of our biggest challenges might just be how slow regulations are catching up. Take Europe, for instance. The CEO of Ciena recently pointed out the bewildering scenario of having 180 carriers in Europe, including places with a bunch of Telcos but not a lot of people. It just doesn’t make economic sense. This situation shines a light on the need for regulatory frameworks that can keep up with tech advances, ensuring the telecom sector doesn't just survive but thrives.

Telecom has always evolved in waves. Each one reshaping not just networks, but the way leaders think. Before GSM, we operated siloed systems until GSM MoU asked a bold question: what if we aligned? That decision unlocked 3GPP, LTE surge, and ultimately 5G NR - transforming telecom from infrastructure into the digital backbone of economies. Now we’re at the next wave. Only this time, the catalyst is AI. And with AI the data is clear: 50%+ of CXOs already see noticeable gains in decision speed, foresight, and creativity through AI, and active use is expected to more than double within three years. At the same time, only 1% expect AI to make autonomous strategic decisions - a reminder that leadership judgment still sets the direction. Three things matter now: 1. AI doesn’t replace decisions, it improves the right ones. From capacity planning to churn prediction and service design, AI elevates decision quality while leaving human‑led calls where stakes are reputational. 2. Human AI chemistry becomes a leadership differentiator. Just as GSM succeeded through alignment, today’s leaders must learn to think with AI. Tools will standardize; judgment and collaboration won’t. 3. Governance is the accelerator. With 71% of CXOs citing legal and security risks, trust, explainability, and responsible data practices are what enable AI to scale safely and confidently. We’ve been here before - GSM, 3GPP, LTE, 5G, NTN. Each leap required leaders to rethink how decisions get made. AI is simply the next leap. And the leaders who lean in now will shape what comes next. https://lnkd.in/gKBNB_cu

For decades, CSPs poured billions into 4G, 5G, spectrum, and radio networks — yet much of the digital value was captured above the network. Why? Because the value is not in infrastructure alone but also in the intelligence layer. In 2024, the top 100 operators generated $1.75T in revenue — but spent $1.38T in OPEX. That’s a massive opportunity to unlock profits. And it won’t be solved by more spectrum or faster radios. It will be solved by AI, automation, and a rethink of OSS/BSS and IT — from back-office systems into engines of growth, monetization, and customer experience. Legacy silos across billing, CRM, and network data are holding back innovation. Modern data platforms harnessing graph datasets and agentic AI will help change the trajectory — turning raw data into real-time intelligence that can act, orchestrate, and monetize. We’re already seeing it happen: > AI-driven anomaly detection and traffic prediction > Digital twins optimizing network energy use > Intent-based automation cutting order-to-cash cycles > GenAI agents accelerating catalog migration and product design Suppliers like Ericsson are embedding AI and automation across OSS/BSS to help CSPs reclaim control of key revenue levers. The winners will be those who shift investment toward the intelligence layer — building platforms that activate data, scale automation, and create new revenue streams. The question isn’t who builds the fastest network anymore. It’s who builds the smartest platform. For more on how this is being applied check out: https://lnkd.in/ehZhAk3h #Telecom #AI #Automation #OSS #BSS #AgenticAI #5G #NetworkAutomation #DigitalTransformation #AppledoreResearch #InnovatorsDilemma

This week’s Americas Telco Brief (Nov 17–21) is a loud signal that infrastructure, AI, and regulation are converging into a new strategic battleground. In North America, investment is shifting towards next-generation networks. Shentel has secured USD 567 million for fiber expansion, and Telus is transitioning from Huawei to a multivendor open RAN while launching a quantum-safe VPN. AWS is developing its own long-haul DWDM backbone and partnering with Charter for generative AI. The FCC is advancing a new C-band auction amidst security concerns, while Verizon is reducing its workforce by 13,000 and appointing a new Chief Transformation Officer, prioritizing cost management and reinvention. In LatAm, AI-ready infrastructure is gaining momentum: EdgeUno and AtlasCloud launch GPU cloud across 17 countries; Mexico and Chile aim to be HPC/AI hubs with NVIDIA and AMD; Colombia approves the Tigo–Movistar deal with strict competition conditions, while Brazil’s ISPs focus capex on efficiency and digital services. For C-level leaders, the takeaway is clear: competitive advantage will favour those who: (1) finance networks creatively, (2) secure and “AI-proof” infrastructure, and (3) treat LatAm not as an adjacency, but as a core AI and cloud growth region. #BellLabsConsulting

𝗧𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺 is no longer just upgrading infrastructure. It is repositioning for control in the AI economy. Over the last 24–36 months, the industry has crossed a structural inflection point. The real question for telecom leaders is no longer whether transformation is needed. It is where to place the next strategic bet. In our latest 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗳: 𝗧𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁, we unpack the forces reshaping the industry: • 𝗔𝗜 becoming the decision layer across operations, customer care, and network assurance • 𝗦𝗼𝗳𝘁𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗲 redefining network economics through APIs, cloud-native cores, and programmable infrastructure • 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 shifting from connectivity alone to ecosystems, vertical solutions, and AI-era services • 𝗦𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻𝘁𝘆, 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 emerging as commercial differentiators • 𝗛𝘆𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀 moving both up and down the stack, accelerating co-opetition and disintermediation risk 𝗔 𝗳𝗲𝘄 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁: 61% of telco executives are scaling GenAI across functions 85% of operators aspire to Level 4 autonomous networks by 2030, yet only 4% have reached it AI infrastructure is now a top strategic bet for telecom leaders Sovereign data and cloud are becoming central to future value capture 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿: telecom leaders cannot fund every adjacency, defend every legacy model, and win by incrementalism. The winners will be those who simplify portfolios, modernize data and network foundations, and choose their role in the AI value chain with conviction. 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 from network operator to AI-era platform orchestrator. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴𝘀 to telecom leaders who move early on three fronts: 𝗔𝗜-𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝘀 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀 The next decade of telecom value creation will not be defined by spectrum alone. It will be defined by who controls intelligence, trust, and monetizable platforms at scale. How is your organization redefining its position in the AI economy — as a connectivity provider, a platform player, or a sovereign digital backbone? #Telecom #AI #GenAI #DataModernization #Cloud #NetworkTransformation #AutonomousNetworks #DigitalSovereignty #Telecommunications #Leadership #Strategy