Scenario Planning Methods

A Practical Guide to 1.5 C Scenarios for Financial Users I'm incredibly proud of this comprehensive UN Environment Programme report and resource on climate scenarios! It was my final piece of work with United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI) and one that was a major team effort and a multiyear process! We developed it to help financial users to understand the assumptions behind these critical scenarios and how they can be applied in financial decision-making from net-zero target-setting to risk management. It is full of analyses of different scenarios in comparison to each other, explorations of sector decarbonization pathways, and practical applications of scenario data and insights. It covers IPCC, NGFS, and International Energy Agency (IEA) scenarios and brings in data from a variety of sectors in order to show the changes needed to deliver a sustainable future. Have a look through it here: https://lnkd.in/d8G5eSae There really is something in here for everyone. We hope it becomes a valuable desk reference for you and your teams! #climate #netzero #decarbonization #climatescenarios #climatescience #IEA #NGFS #UN #IPCC #climatefinance #climaterisk

We’ve all seen how quickly a single moment on social media can spiral. One tone-deaf comment, one AI-generated response that misses the mark, or just a slow internal handoff and suddenly, your brand is trending for all the wrong reasons. When I started building our AI-First Mindset™ transformation program, I knew we couldn’t just focus on opportunity. We also had to prepare leaders for risk and that includes public-facing crises fueled by speed and automation. That’s why I developed a new module focused on building a social media crisis management plan designed for today’s AI-powered workplace. We cover the essentials: • How to build a clear, flexible crisis communication plan • The best crisis management tools to monitor and respond in real time • How to define team roles across marketing, legal, leadership and tech • And how to account for AI-powered systems that can escalate issues if not handled properly In a world where content and backlash move at machine speed, your people need clarity. That starts with a plan that’s actually usable and practiced before the pressure hits. This isn’t about fear. It’s about preparation. AI adoption comes with incredible potential, but it also changes how we manage trust. A good crisis response needs to e part of your broader AI change management strategy. If your team is using AI but hasn’t revisited your crisis plan, now’s the time. Stay tuned for practical guidance on creating crisis plans that perform under pressure. #DigitalCrisisStrategy #CrisisCommunication #CrisisResponse #DigitalCrisis #SocialMediaCrisis

“Another Boeing plane has crashed…” That headline didn’t just inform the world. It shook it. Airlines grounded fleets. Passengers canceled bookings. Families waited in grief. And in those painful moments, everyone turned to Boeing — waiting for reassurance, compassion, and clarity. But what they received instead was silence, technical statements, and corporate coldness. ⸻ 💬 The Dialogue That Never Happened Imagine if Boeing’s CEO had stood before the world and said: 👉 “We are devastated by this tragedy. Our deepest condolences go to the families who lost their loved ones. We take full responsibility to uncover the truth, fix it, and make sure this never happens again. Every passenger’s life matters. We will not rest until trust is restored.” Instead, the company issued vague technical explanations about “software updates” and “pilot procedures.” The difference? One statement speaks to the heart. The other hides behind jargon. 📉 The Fallout of Silence Boeing didn’t just lose billions in market value. They lost something far more precious: trust. • Passengers felt unsafe. • Governments demanded groundings. • Airlines questioned contracts. • Employees lost pride. A global brand that once symbolized safety became a symbol of fear. And the leadership lesson? 👉 In crisis, your communication is your reputation. ⸻ When tragedy strikes, the human brain looks for three things immediately: 1. Reassurance (Pathos): “Do you see my pain? Do you care?” 2. Clarity (Logos): “What exactly happened? Am I safe?” 3. Responsibility (Ethos): “Can I trust you to fix this?” ⸻ Here’s a 3-step Crisis Communication Framework every CEO must remember: 1. Acknowledge Emotion (Pathos): • Show empathy immediately. • Example: “We are heartbroken by this tragedy. Lives were lost. Families are grieving.” 2. Share Facts Clearly (Logos): • State what you know, what you don’t know, and what you’re investigating. • Example: “The incident involves [details]. Investigations are ongoing. Safety checks are underway globally.” 3. Commit to Responsibility (Ethos): • Show accountability and promise change. • Example: “We take full responsibility. Here’s how we are fixing it: [specific steps].” ⸻ ✅ Do’s & ❌ Don’ts of Crisis Communication ✅ Do’s • Respond quickly. Speed signals responsibility. • Lead with humanity. Speak to emotions first, facts second. • Be transparent. Say what you know and admit what you don’t. • Take responsibility. Even partial acknowledgment builds trust. • Be consistent. Updates must be regular, not one-time. ❌ Don’ts • Stay silent. Silence is filled with rumors. • Use jargon. “Software anomaly” means nothing to grieving families. • Deflect blame. Saying “pilot error” erodes credibility. • Downplay loss. Even one life lost must be honored. • Overpromise. “It will never happen again” sounds hollow if unproven. ⸻ 💡 The Bigger Leadership Lesson Crisis doesn’t just test your company. It tests your character.

This is a pivotal time for business leaders to apply strategic foresight and systems thinking. Go beyond tariffs and stock market trends and consider the broader, longer-term impacts: 1. How might a trend toward AI deregulation in product safety affect the AI products my business relies on? 2. In what ways could shifts in immigration policy influence my workforce strategy for maintaining a competitive edge with emerging technologies? How could these policies reshape PhD talent pipelines? 3. How will evolving U.S. geopolitical relationships impact my third-party suppliers and global partnerships? 4. With the increasing influence of techno-politics, what new considerations emerge for my business strategy? Scenario planning is key in moments of change and uncertainty.

"Should we hire or should we cut?" is a question I'm hearing often from small business owners right now, which is fair given the mixed economic signals. Some clients are seeing their best quarters ever. Others are watching pipelines thin out. Everyone seems to be asking, "How do we plan for what we can't predict?" This is where scenario planning becomes your survival tool; not just hoping for the best, but modeling the reality of different futures. Here's what we walk our clients through: 🌳 The Growth Scenario: For example, if revenue is expected to be up, we’re looking at potential team expansion and higher overhead. Looking at what that does for cash flow given the changes to expected expense changes. 🌱 The Steady Scenario: Where flat growth is expected and we plan to maintain current team, we’ll want to optimize margins and prepare for inevitable per team member increases. There will likely be some percentage increase YOY but we expect the core costs to stay the same. 🍃 The Contraction Scenario: On the other hand, if revenue is expected to go down, we want to look at strategic cuts that allow the team to run efficiently while preserving cash. For our clients, this is usually a mix of team, professional services, and travel. We also want to ensure that the resources kept are used efficiently. Each scenario gets its own financial mode where we map out cash flow, runway, and break-even points for 3, 6, and 12 months ahead. The command center for this? Fathom. We've been using Fathom since the beginning of Little Fish Accounting and it lets us build the scenarios in real-time with clients, showing exactly how each decision ripples through their financials. No more spreadsheet gymnastics or gut-feeling guesses. Ultimately, the founders who survive uncertainty aren't the ones with crystal balls—they're the ones with clear models and decisive action plans. And we're glad to be the builders 🧱

Physical climate risk data: the more we learn, the less we know? Khalid Azizuddin's recent piece in *Responsible Investor captures well what many practitioners are grappling with today: - asset-level data that remain incomplete or hard to interpret; - physical hazard exposure often disconnected from financial materiality; - little visibility on supply chains or customers; - adaptation and resilience efforts largely ignored; - and a risk of over-simplifying complex realities into a single “score.” Some three years ago, EDHEC Business School set out to address exactly these challenges, working to advance climate risk modelling and make decision-useful for investors, companies, and public authorities. In this work, we have developed: 🔹 a blueprint for a new generation of probabilistic climate scenarios; 🔹 high-resolution geospatial modeling capabilities to allow for geographic and sectoral downscaling, consistent with each scenario; 🔹 an open database of decarbonisation and resilience technologies through the #ClimaTech project, which officially launched this week. While the research is public, the new EDHEC Climate Institute has also been assisting a school-backed venture, Scientific Climate Ratings (SCR), which integrates this research to deliver forward-looking quantification of the #financialmateriality of climate risks for infrastructure companies and investors worldwide. While SCR provides a rating scale for comparability, it avoids the trap of over-simplification. Each rating is backed by probabilistic scenario modelling, analysis of physical and transition risk exposures, and explicit accounting for adaptation measures. The result is a synthesis that remains transparent, interpretable, and anchored in scientific rigour. Together, these initiatives aim to move the discussion from data abundance to decision relevance, equipping practitioners with tools that connect climate science, finance, and strategy.

No one wants to leave 70% of Value on the table. Ok - I have a confession. Now that I have been a Certified LEGO Seriousplay facilitator for 2.5 years, and conducted dozens of workshops to numerous organisations large and small, I can tell you most enquiries I get, are about "doing the LEGO duck 🦆" or "teambuilding". Yes, I can facilitate those. (so can many many many trainers and facilitators) Yes, of course those are fun activities for teams to do. But actually, in the LSP world, we call them Application level 1 and 2. It goes from Level 1 through 7, with INCREASING levels of insights extraction (and time required). The relationship goes: - Deeper insights --> Higher Level LSP --> Longer time So James, then what is Level 6 & 7? (by the way i'd be SO happy if someone asks me to conduct a Level 6 or 7 workshop, because it means you the client TOTALLY gets the value). In 6 and 7 we build scenarios that addresses the different variations of our business strategy or simulate a business crisis and 'stress test' our responses. We look at what happens when we change one enabling factor and how it affects our scenario and the other inter-dependent processes. A 2026 Example could be: Hmm, ok let's move all our admin processes to AI agents. I come in, and say, "ok, let's map that out with the bricks". What does it mean for: (a) the workforce (b) skills (c) technology investment (d) socialising and adoption (e) Costs and ROI (f) compliance and regulation etc etc Usually the participants in the room are functional leads from different departments that need to address a core business topic or scenario, and there isn't a simple, clear, and engaging post-it exercise that can get the team members that picture. We also co-create a set of Simple Guiding Principles (SPGs) that help the team navigate future crises based on their deep understanding of their own business system, processes, and people dynamics, which they already got from going through Levels 1 through 5. So, ironically, getting to Simple Guiding Principles is NOT SIMPLE AT ALL. It requires the team to have already gone through Levels 1 through 6. Just like a Tower of LEGO bricks, you cannot just build the top layer of deep insights without 'doing the work' of building the foundational insight layers. A full Level 1 to 7 workshop is NOT a 1 hour team building. It is a 2 day workshop, minimum. Don't ask me to facilitate one if you can't spare the time! I am sharing an infographic here that summarises some of the 2026 topics that could be relevant under each Level of LSP. You know where to find me for enquiries. Is Singapore ready for Levels 6 and 7? Or we keep building our ducks and stay at Level 1 and 2? 🦆🦆🦆🦆 #LEGOSeriousplay #Facilitator #SystemsThinking #DesignThinking #Innovation #Teams

We are undergoing a minor crisis in marketing. Hubspot and G2 have seen their SEO traffic drop 80%. The problem? Marketers are focusing on how to CREATE content using LLMs - when they need to MARKET content to LLMs. Unless you start creating content for LLMs as one of your PRIMARY audience, your reach will collapse and your visibility will vanish. Your buyers are now using LLMs and AI answers to find you. Search engines are coping with this change and changing algorithms. There is a new playbook. Adapt or disappear. 2000-2025: RISE OF SEO AND CONTENT MARKETING If the search engines couldn’t find you - you did not exist. Here’s the traditional playbook to get noticed by Search engines: - Thought leadership content: Unique insights developed for target audience to position the brand as a trusted expert - Content optimized for organic keyword discovery: carefully crafted high intent keywords to rank high on search engines and drive inbound traffic - Authority and backlinking: build high quality backlinks via guest posts or strategic partnerships - Long form articles that sparked discussions: Optimized for social discovery, engagement and conversations - SEO excellence: ensure fast loading, mobile friendly pages with strong internal linking for better indexing 2025 AND BEYOND : RISE OF LLMs AND AI In future - If the LLMs cannot find you, you do not exist. Here’s an emerging playbook to get a favorable presence in LLMs. - SEO is evolving to include LLM content discovery - Content optimized for LLMs to better position you against competitors - Make your support docs, use case docs and knowledge base public for LLMs to crawl. More content and case studies leads to better positioning.  - Thought leadership content and social engagement still works - Optimize for AI overviews while still pursuing organic authority - Your brand is more than just your website or search engines. Every podcast, YouTube video, blog post, and Reddit comment will be parsed by LLMs to shape your company knowledge graph.  - GEO Excellence: Master Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) to stay ahead. - LLMs are evolving. Use them to your advantage. Monitor brand perception, track competitors, and feed the right content to shape your narrative. GEO programmatic tools and agencies are coming - but don’t wait. Your buyers are already searching for you on ChatGPT. Run the same searches and manage your presence on LLMs. Ensure you stand out against your competitors and if you don’t, find a way to feed the right content to LLMs.  TAKEAWAY: SEO evolution is already happening whether you like it or not. Your buyers will increasingly use LLMs to find you. Your organic reach is now getting decentralized. Control your narrative or let AI control it for you. 

The most respected leaders aren't born in the C-suite, they are forged during crises. (how to best manage a crisis) The stakes couldn't be higher: - Only 42% of companies emerge stronger after crisis. - Poor crisis response leads to avg -63% company value. - Transformational leaders have 3.5x better survival rates. Crisis management teaches us that all crises have four phases, each demanding a unique leadership approach. Here’s how the best leaders adapt across the full cycle: 1️⃣ Pre-Crisis Stage ↳The warning signs are subtle, look for them. ↳This is where quiet leadership matters most. ✍ Leadership focus: - Spot weak signals early - Build contingency plans - Clarify roles, train teams - Engage stakeholders before you need to 💡 Key skills: Foresight. Strategic planning. Proactive communication. 2️⃣ Crisis Stage ↳Everything feels urgent. ↳Decisively take action and lead. ✍ Leadership focus: - Make decisions fast, and own them - Control the chaos, guide the response - Communicate clearly and honestly - Stay calm, especially when others can’t 💡 Key skills: Decisiveness. Emotional regulation. Orchestration. 3️⃣ Chronic Stage ↳The headlines move on, but the damage lingers. ↳This is where leadership shifts from fast to sustained. ✍ Leadership focus: - Contain the ripple effects - Support your team - Stay adaptive, the full picture is still unfolding - Keep people informed, even when there’s no big news 💡 Key skills: Resilience. Empathy. Focused follow-through. 4️⃣ Resolution Stage ↳It’s tempting to “move on” ↳ But this is your chance to embed the learning ✍ Leadership focus: - Reflect and document what worked (and what didn’t) - Repair relationships and reputation - Turn the crisis into cultural memory - Strengthen your systems for next time 💡 Key skills: Reflection. Strategic improvement. Organisational learning. Effective crisis leadership doesn't rely on one skill. But a series of strategic shifts: From foresight → to control → to recovery → to reflection. Each phase demands something different from you. And while most teams can survive a crisis, very few know how to grow stronger because of it. Be the leader who knows the difference. - - - ♻️ Repost to help your network. ➕ Oliver Ramirez G. for leadership & process improvement tips. Data sources: PwC Global Crisis Survey, FTI Consulting, Marsh. Research sources: Fink (1986), Mitroff (1994), Coombs (1999).

𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗡𝗘𝗪𝗦- after 1,5 years, our 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 benchmarking paper with UNEPFI is finally out! 💡What started as an idea almost 2 years ago is now finally coming to life. 🔭After numerous workshops and survey sessions with 20+ UNEPFI banks . 📝Long hours researching, discussing, summarizing, writing. Our report now synthesizes all this collected and public information in one place to help finance professionals 𝗻𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 and strengthen their risk management capabilities. We have developed this report as collaboration between SAS and the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI) and their 20+ banks. Based on survey and workshops conducted with 20+ UNEPFI bank this report explores: 📌What are the common scenarios, approaches and assumptions applied by banks for assessing Transition and Physical risks 📌Which risk measures banks use to simulate the 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘀 📌How do banks adress and manage 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 embedded in their climate risk models 📌To what extent is climate stress 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 with bank's other forward looking processes📌How vital is the 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝗿𝗼𝗯𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗜𝗧 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 for an efficient and integrated climate risk stress testing 📌𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗱𝗶𝗲𝘀 & 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘀 of how banks adress climate risk management 📌Expert perspectives on 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱 for the climate risk stress testing discipline Additionally, the report highlights areas for further enhancement in climate stress testing methodologies. By presenting 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗯𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 and identifying areas for prioritization I am confident this report will help institutions in 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹. 🎢What a journey this was. I am so grateful for the opportunity to be part of this exercise and co-lead this great initiative. 👏My big thanks and congratulations go to the report team: Maheen Arshad, Melanie O'Toole, Arjun Mahalingam,David Trinh for this excellent work. The report download link can be found below. I am happy to provide more details and eager to hear your thoughts.