Private Equity Insights

Private Thoughts From My Desk ……………. #33 𝐓𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐬 & 𝐔𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲: 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐏𝐄 𝐑𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐍𝐨𝐰 After five years of what I can only describe as "unique disruptions"—a global pandemic, unprecedented inflation, interest rate shocks—we now face yet another: a new wave of tariffs. For private equity, the impact of these policy moves isn’t just about the numbers—it’s about the uncertainty they inject into long-term models. Private equity lives and dies by its ability to predict the future—five years at a time, with leverage. So when policy shifts like these arrive without clear direction or a timeline, deal pipelines stall. It’s not that the tariffs themselves are necessarily fatal—it’s that no one knows what game we’re playing, or how the rules might change again next quarter. We entered 2025 with momentum. Intermediaries were busy, due diligence was in high gear, portfolio companies were readying for exit. But in February, the “T word” started surfacing. Tariffs are just another word for uncertainty—what I call the dreaded “U word” in private equity—and everything slowed. Activity now reflects what we’re hearing every day: it’s hard to make long-term bets when you don’t know what to model in the short term. For LPs, the liquidity crunch is especially acute. Liquidity is at levels we haven’t seen since the Great Recession. Many LPs are rebalancing through secondaries; some are exploring NAV loans and other creative strategies. The ones with dry powder—sovereign wealth funds, select family offices—see dislocation as opportunity. But for most, frustration is mounting. Fundraising is feeling the pinch, see the chart below for buyout fundraising trends. Exit activity is a leading indicator—and right now, that indicator is flashing yellow. Fundraising was always going to be challenged in 2025. Now, recovery may be deferred even further. So what can GPs do? It’s back to basics (again) with portfolio companies: secure the balance sheet, conserve cash, and avoid covenant or financing issues in the near term. There’s also renewed urgency to get EBITDA up—quickly—through pricing, cost reduction, and working capital optimization. Anything that opens the door to a liquidity event in the near term. This is also a time for firms to solidify their long-term strategy. Some are asking whether it’s time to double down on what they do best and exit non-core strategies. Consolidation is no longer theoretical—it’s a daily conversation, especially for firms caught in the increasingly challenging middle market. This isn’t a crisis. But it is a moment of reckoning. In a market defined by scarcer capital, talent, and investment opportunities—not everyone wins. Knowing what you do best, doubling down on it, and charting a clear path forward for your firm are more essential than ever. #privateequity #privatemarkets #privatethoughtsfrommydesk

We spent the last year and a half collecting data on over 8,000 PE investors in the US. We analyzed their portfolios, and ranked the largest by EV managed. Congratulations to all the leaders: 🥇 Blackstone (managing a total enterprise value of $156bn in the US) 🥈 KKR ($100bn)  🥉 Thoma Bravo ($81bn) Other investors in the top 10 include Apollo Global Management, Inc. ($77bn), Hellman & Friedman ($65bn), Bain Capital ($59bn), Vista Equity Partners ($54bn), The Carlyle Group ($48bn), TPG ($45bn), and EQT Group ($44bn). Collectively, the top 100 investors in the US manage an estimated EV of  $2.2tn across 3,207 assets. Sponsors HQ'd in the US dominate the ranking, making up for 85% of the total US 100 EV. 𝗔 𝗳𝗲𝘄 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮: 1️⃣ New York is the largest hub for the US 100 investors. It accounts for 33% of investor HQs, followed by San Francisco (11%), Boston (9%), Chicago (7%), and Greenwich (6%). 2️⃣ TMT is the largest sector for PE investments (31% of the assets). Thoma Bravo, Vista Equity Partners, Clearlake, Insight Partners, Francisco Partners, Silver Lake, and TA Associates all have over 60% of their portfolios in TMT. 3️⃣ The aggregated US 100 EV ($2.2tn) is smaller than individual giants like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple. It's just 4% of the >$60 trillion US public equity market, showcasing the size of the opportunity ahead. 4️⃣ The top 10 investors account for over one-third of US 100 EV with the top 20 accounting for 58%. The big are becoming bigger. 9 out of the top 10 firms were founded during or before the 1990s. Vista Equity Partners, Roark Capital, and Clearlake stand out as larger young entrants. 5️⃣ Geographically, PE assets in the US are concentrated in California (13%), Texas (12%), New York (7%), Florida (6%), and Illinois (6%). The top 16 states represent 80% of PE assets. TMT is the largest sector in three of the four US regions (Midwest being the exception where Services is the largest sector). ________ 𝗙𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 Don't miss out on the full report: 💡List of top 100 investors 💡Granular insights on their portfolios 💡Sector and Regional rankings ➡️ Get it here: https://lnkd.in/e5b9xkMe P.S. I'll be at DealMax next month, happy to meet up! #investors #PE #us #insights #dealmax

From 2010 through 2021, private equity exits delivered average valuation uplift of 24% to 29%. From 2022 through 2025, that figure moves closer to 8%, with several outcomes near zero or below. During that same period, many businesses have been sold three or four times. Taken together, this data points to a meaningful shift in how value is preserved or eroded. Private equity is structured around frequent ownership changes. Funds acquire companies, pursue improvement plans, and sell within three to five years. Each transition introduces fees, taxes, financing costs, and management distraction. Exit pricing once absorbed much of that friction. With uplift now compressed, the cumulative impact of repeated transactions becomes easier to see. Family Offices operate with longer ownership horizons. Businesses can be acquired with the intention to hold them for many years. Strategy remains steady. Leadership stays focused on operations. Earnings remain inside the company and compound over time. Fewer ownership changes also mean fewer taxable events, which has a material effect on long term outcomes. This marks an inflection point in the evolution of Family Offices. Just as private equity reshaped public markets decades ago, Family Offices are beginning to reshape private market ownership. Interests align around durability and stewardship. Ownership horizons reflect how businesses actually grow. The model itself is strong. The historical limitation has been execution. Only a small number of Family Offices had the internal teams and operating capability to pursue this approach at scale. That is changing as talent and infrastructure continue to improve. As exit uplift tightens and transaction costs remain persistent, long term ownership stands out as a powerful advantage. Family Offices with the ability to execute are positioned to shape the next phase of private market ownership.

Private equity (PE) funds are acquiring major stakes in tech firms operating in areas like digital engineering and healthcare, Beena Parmar reports for The Economic Times. Technology was the top sector for PE/VC investments in Q1 2025, with $3.1 billion invested across 41 deals — a 265% year-on-year value increase, according to IVCA-EY data. While Kedaara Capital in January invested $350 million in data, analytics, and AI solutions firm Impetus Technologies, H.I.G Capital acquired Converge Technology Solutions for C$1.3 billion earlier this year. Agiltas PE also purchased Tietoevry Tech Services for €300 million. Around 70-80 new buyers have entered the market, says Shobhit Jain, Head of Enterprise, Technology, and Services at Avendus Capital. He adds that there is an increasing interest in large deals, because sub-segments like cloud and analytics have seen a 20-40% growth, even in large-scale businesses. What's driving this surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&As)? The fact that in today's tech landscape, a purely organic growth model doesn't result in significant, double-digit growth, adds the Economic Times report, citing analysts. Gaurav Vasu, founder and CEO of UnearthInsight, adds that there has been a 200% growth in M&A investments by PE-backed IT services firms. In 2024, PE-VC investments rebounded 9% year-on-year to touch almost $43 billion, according to Bain & Company and IVCA's India Private Equity Report 2025. While consumer tech funding saw a nearly 2X increase during the period, healthcare deal volumes also jumped by almost 80%, driven in part by large medtech transactions, according to the report. What trends will shape India's tech M&As in 2025? Share your take in the comments. Source: The Economic Times: https://lnkd.in/gh2gkB79 Bain & Company- Indian Venture and Alternate Capital Association (IVCA): https://lnkd.in/dXAhvwaq IVCA EY: https://lnkd.in/g7M5UwkZ ✍ : Isha Chitnis 📸 : Getty Images #PrivateEquity #VentureCapital #TechInvestments

Over the next two years, we will see a wave of IPOs in the Professional Services sector unlike anything before. We’re already hearing from multiple management teams under Private Equity ownership that this is exactly where they’re heading. These listings will either validate or burst the recent valuation hype the industry has been living in. The large consolidators and high-growth challenger platforms have reached a turning point. Many are now too big for another PE sale, leaving the public markets as their only credible path to liquidity. Few are hiding that ambition. But IPOs will be the ultimate test: can these firms really sustain software-like valuations of 20x+ EBITDA once the market looks beyond the roll-up narrative? Much of the sector’s value has been created through rapid acquisition rather than genuine integration. In some cases, what looks like scale is simply a collection of smaller firms stitched together under a common brand. Public markets are unforgiving of that. They penalise volatility, Partner churn and dependence on key individuals. If growth slows, Partners cash out and the cultural glue that held disparate teams together weakens, the cracks will appear quickly. Once lock-ups expire, the flight risk is real. The best people, who are the true assets, may take their client relationships and start again elsewhere to realise greater equity value in earlier-stage firms. Everyone has been asking what the endgame is for Private Equity in Professional Services. This is it. The coming IPOs will determine whether this model can truly scale and sustain its multiples, or whether the market will impose a reset in how we value people-based businesses.

It’s been a busy few weeks and I’ve neglected my founder scaling series. This one is a biggie: The Exit. Many founders and investors talk about exit as one binary outcome: a trade sale or an IPO, before walking off into the sunset. In 25-plus years of scaling, buying, selling, shutting down and IPOing startups, I’ve learned it is a lot more nuanced. It plays out over years, marks the start of the next phase, and looks different for founder, CEO, shareholder or employee. Three dimensions are worth separating early ⬇️ 1. The “exit” deal is actually the start of the next phase. Sell to a strategic and you typically sign up for two or three years of earnout, with a boss, inside someone else’s structure. I spent a lot of time trying to minimise founders’ frustration after acquiring companies. It was never easy. When we listed PropertyGuru Group on the NYSE, we took on lock-ups, governance, disclosure and quarterly reporting obligations, and a share price that moved on news we couldn’t control. Definitely not a binary outcome. 2. You can take liquidity over time, without handing over the keys. As you scale past Series B, larger investors and private equity firms want to write bigger cheques. So what happens if you do not need the bigger cheque? You clean up the cap table instead. We sold the majority of our PropertyGuru founder shares across four separate rounds, each at a higher valuation, before exiting the last of our shares in 2024. Incoming investors deployed capital through a mix of primary and discounted secondary shares, founders and early backers took partial liquidity, and the cap table got cleaner along the way. Our earliest investors made over 40 times their money before the company had fully exited. 3. Leaving the CEO chair is a separate exit from selling your shares. We hired a CEO and fully handed over the keys at PropertyGuru in 2018, years before the IPO and well before I sold my final shares. I could not have done that without a succession plan executed more than two years beforehand, and derisking personally by selling shares in our family’s single largest asset. This CEO exit has its own timing and its own difficulty. It rarely lines up with the deal, and it is more personal than financial. That is what comes next. This matters for climate. Most climate companies in emerging Asia may never go public. Fragmented markets mean many will exit through acquisition by industrial and infrastructure buyers, and the region is heading into a wave of climate M&A consolidation over the next five years. That consolidation will itself create more exits, each one recycling capital and talent into the next generation of founders. Several founders I know from earlier exits are now angels and LPs, some building again, a few in climate with us at 100x100. An exit is a milestone for one company and fuel for the next. In climate, we need many more of them.

Transactions for a variety of assets are at historically low levels. That could be a sign of potential trouble. Price is a function of both demand and supply. When the value of something declines, say because of a sharp increase in borrowing costs, often the holders of those assets don't like the price they get offered (they still think it's "worth" what it was at the peak, eg when interest rates were very low). So unless they are forced to sell, many of them just refuse to sell at the price it would take to sell. That tends to lead to a sharp fall in transactions/sales/deals. If the number of transactions decline, the supply declines and so prices can remain higher than they would be if transactions were at more normal levels. Often, eventually, more people are forced to sell (eg because they can't afford the higher interest payments any longer/ to refinance their debt or because their income declines, eg during a recession). Interest rates also tend to fall during recessions but the key question then is the extent to which lower interest rates offset weaker incomes. So I look at transaction volumes as a potential warning sign for where prices could come under pressure if transactions return to more normal levels. Where are transaction volumes currently weak? The charts below highlight a few areas for consideration: Home sales, office sales, Private Equity and Venture Capital distributions/ IPO volumes/ Leveraged Buy Out (LBO) deals. Some of the charts hopefully speak for themselves but a few notes: Slide 5 shows PE and VC funds are distributing less to their investors. Continuation funds are growing, these are when Private Equity funds transfer assets from one fund they control to another fund they control. This can be an attractive option if they can't sell the asset(s) at valuations that they or their investors would be happy with. Slide 6 shows an estimate of the potential mismatch between the holding valuations of some private equity assets vs recent transactions in the same sectors (from McKinsey's Global Private Markets Report 2025). Some private credit loans finance private equity backed companies. When rates rose in 2022, LBO deals collapsed (slide 4) but the share that were backed by private credit increased (LHS of slide 10). The RHS of slide 10 shows that the proportion of privately rated private credit assets being rated by smaller ratings agencies has increased dramatically in recent years. I would highly recommend you read the recent Bloomberg article titled "A new ratings game, 3000 deals, 20 analysts, lots of questions". Let me know if you would like a link to it. Toby Nangle's "inside the private equity-insurance nexus" is also an important read in the FT. If someone wants to sell you something where transactions have dried up, make sure you do your homework. And if something is on offer at a "discount" or a high yield, again do your homework. Many of the charts are from the JPM "Guide to Alternatives".

The PE Liquidity Crisis: Where are the exits? 😶🌫️ The numbers are clear - despite an ongoing recovery in exits, and a re-opened IPO market, PE investors are seeing record lows in the distributions that they receive from their buyout investments. For me, there’s a number of reasons at play (don’t see this as an exhaustive list): ⛈️ The economic environment continues to be challenging. While public market indices keep on hitting new highs driven by Mag 7 and the AI hype, the ‘real’ economy such as industrial firms or chemicals companies are struggling. Whether its tariffs, geopolitics, or supply chain challenges, uncertainty is high. 📈 Interest rates are falling, but elevated. Long gone are the days of EUR high yield financings below 3% - banks are cautious, and the numerous private credit funds want to see double-digit interest rates for their financings, significantly cutting back the number of feasible deals. 💸 Entry valuations are high relative to current levels. Many of the deals that should start to hit exit channels were bought at high prices of ‘19-21. While economic fundamentals, in some cases, might be decent, the decline in non-tech valuations (although investors are also much more cautious here than in 2021) is making exits at current levels unattractive - especially to the GPs given their (lack of) carry. 🤒 Fund-level fundraising is tough. One would think that GPs would be incentivized to sell - after all, more DPI might make them look more attractive in regards to raising their successor fund. But unless they can sell for a great price (which is unlikely for average assets), selling might also mean that they lose some of the cost basis on which their management fee is charged, unless they already have a new fund that can charge management fee. A classic chicken-egg-situation. Either way, the overall trend is clear: Investors have committed substantially to private equity, venture capital, and comparable asset classes, and are not receiving the degree of distributions that would be required to maintain (or even grow) their fund portfolio. As one family officer with an established portfolio (15+ years of investing) told me at a dinner during SuperReturn earlier this year: “𝘉𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 2022, 𝘸𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘥 𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘣𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘨𝘨𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘥𝘢𝘺𝘴, 𝘸𝘦’𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺’𝘭𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘴.” You might think that a lack of traditional exits simply means that there is no way for GPs to realize liquidity from their funds. But in that, you are mistaken - there’s few problems that a GP won’t try to solve through some creative financial engineering. More on that tomorrow.

Private Equity: A Long-Term Winner with Big Opportunities Today Private equity has always been a top performer in long-term portfolios. The latest data reinforces what we already know—it delivers better risk-adjusted returns than public markets. But today’s environment is creating an even bigger opportunity. Secondaries and middle-market buyouts are where the real value is right now. Why Private Equity Wins Over Time Private equity isn’t just another asset class. It consistently outperforms public equities by combining active management, operational improvements, and long-term capital discipline. It also has lower correlation to public markets, making it a powerful portfolio diversifier. More importantly, private equity firms aren’t forced into short-term earnings cycles like public companies. They have time to drive real value creation, making them more resilient in downturns and better positioned for long-term growth. Where’s the Best Opportunity Today? Right now, secondaries are offering high-quality private equity stakes at discounts. Liquidity pressures are forcing some investors to sell at 10-20% below NAV, creating a rare buying opportunity. These deals allow investors to capture strong returns with faster capital deployment. Middle-market buyouts are also gaining traction. Large-cap deals face pressure from higher interest rates and expensive valuations, but mid-market companies offer lower entry multiples and strong cash flow visibility. The best opportunities are in healthcare, industrials, and tech-enabled services, where companies have stable revenue and pricing power. How to Position for 2025 • Secondaries provide premium assets at a discount—a smart way to buy into private equity with reduced risk. • Mid-market buyouts offer strong entry points and long-term value creation. • Sector focus matters—defensive growth industries like healthcare, infrastructure, and tech-enabled services are outperforming. • Operational improvements, not just financial engineering, will drive the next wave of private equity returns. Private equity isn’t just about growth anymore—it’s about strategic value investing in a changing market. The best opportunities today aren’t in chasing high multiples—they’re in finding mispriced assets and driving operational upside.

What if I told you that 𝐚𝐧𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐞 could be a venture investor - even in the public markets? Venture capital rests on one of the most important ideas in investing: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐚𝐰. A small handful of companies generate the vast majority of returns, while most deliver little to no upside. That’s why venture outcomes are so widely dispersed - and why aiming for “average” in VC rarely compensates for the risk or illiquidity. What’s less well understood is that this exact same phenomenon shows up in the 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 once VC-backed companies IPO. In fact, the pattern is even more glaring... I analyzed 𝟒𝟏𝟒 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐕𝐂-𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐈𝐏𝐎𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟎 𝐭𝐨 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐. I then ranked the companies by their year-3 post-IPO returns into deciles, and tracked how each year-3 decile performed at year-2, year-1, 6 months, and 1 day after IPO. The results were eye-opening: • 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭-𝐈𝐏𝐎, 𝟓𝟎% 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐈𝐏𝐎 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞. Many of the private-market “power-law winners” failed to sustain their outperformance in the public markets.    • 𝐎𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐨𝐩 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬. Three years in, only the top three deciles delivered positive returns, with the top decile soaring +𝟒𝟎𝟎% - 𝐧𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝟒× 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭-𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐥𝐞.    • 𝐈𝐏𝐎 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 ≠ 𝐥𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞. By the 6-month lock-up - when pre-IPO investors can actually sell - 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝟕%, with only the top four deciles are positive.    • 𝐂𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐨𝐫 𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬. The 2020 - 2022 wave made up 40% of IPOs - 𝐲𝐞𝐭 𝟓𝟓% 𝐟𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐬, while just 4% cracked the top three.    The conclusion: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐚𝐰 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐩 𝐚𝐭 𝐈𝐏𝐎. 𝐏𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐕𝐂-𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐬 𝐬𝐤𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐬. 𝐒𝐨, 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬? 𝟏. 𝐏𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐚𝐰 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐬. The skewed distribution of returns isn’t unique to VC - it persists in public markets, where a small fraction of IPOs drives nearly all value. 𝟐. 𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫. Companies that reach the top decile at year 3 are often outperforming by 6 months or 1 year, while most laggards never recover, highlighting the importance of early post-IPO momentum. 𝟑. 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫. Most top-decile IPOs went public ahead of the 2020 - 2021 bull run, while the majority of IPOs during those years now trade in the lower deciles, showing how market cycles shape outcomes. Signals in the Noise 🤓