Technology Trade Agreements

India–US Trade: Why This Deal Matters This is not a conventional trade agreement but a technology, supply chain and capital alignment compact between the world’s largest and oldest democracies. India has moved from being viewed as a consumption market to being positioned as a trusted manufacturing and production partner. The agreement plugs India directly into China exit and friend shoring of supply chain by the US, spanning electronics, semiconductors, defence and critical minerals. From chips to clean energy to aerospace, the deal spans the full strategic industrial stack not just tariff lines. India has negotiated from strength , protecting sensitive sectors while sequencing market access pragmatically. For global investors, the signal is that India is the most scalable, rules based production alternative in a fragmented world The domestic impact is structural and positive , be it jobs, export competitiveness, technology absorption and MSME integration all stand to accelerate. This agreement should be seen from the interdependence perspective, designed around India’s longer term strategic interests.

Yesterday’s announcement of the first UK-US tech agreement is striking in both scale and ambition: over £31bn of new investment from Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, OpenAI, CoreWeave and others aim to expand the UK’s AI and tech infrastructure, create a new AI Growth Zone in the North East, and deepen collaboration across AI, quantum, healthcare and clean energy. This is more than just a capital injection – it represents a powerful vote of confidence in the UK’s ability to compete at the very frontier of technology. It signals that global players see Britain not only as a customer for their products, but as a partner with the talent, research base, and entrepreneurial ecosystem capable of shaping what comes next. It’s also encouraging to see this pact framed around collaboration. From building the advanced compute infrastructure that underpins AI, to accelerating breakthroughs in healthcare and clean energy, the UK and US together have an opportunity to set the pace globally – not just in research, but in responsible standards, regulation, and adoption. When we published our Big Tech report this time last year, we called for deeper collaboration between global technology companies and the startups and scaleups with the potential to shape our future. This week’s announcement signals a promising step in this direction. Now, the real opportunity lies in ensuring these investments don’t sit in isolation, but actively integrate with the UK’s startup and scaleup community. Of course, the details still matter. We need clarity on how this partnership will be structured to deliver lasting benefit. But taken at face value, today’s announcement is a reminder that the UK can be more than a consumer of global tech – we can be a maker, shaper, and global leader. More here: https://lnkd.in/ei58ZWye #UKUSTech #TechProsperityDeal #AI #TechPolicy #Innovation #Scaleups #GlobalCollaboration #CleanEnergy #Quantum #FoundersForum #TechNation Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, Keir Starmer, Jensen Huang, Sam Altman, Josh Payne, Rene Haas, Satya Nadella, Michael Intrator

Nvidia and AMD have struck a significant deal with the U.S. government, marking a major shift in how advanced technology is sold to China. This isn't a fine, but a new kind of "tax" on tech exports. The agreement allows Nvidia and AMD to sell their special China-only AI chips (like the H20 and MI308) in the Chinese market. In return, they must give 15% of the revenue from these sales to the U.S. government. Without this deal, sales would be blocked entirely under existing export controls. The "Why" The U.S. has long feared China using advanced chips for military purposes. This new approach allows the U.S. to collect revenue while still exerting control, moving beyond a simple ban. Impact on Investors & Businesses Good News for Investors: This deal prevents the loss of a massive market for Nvidia and AMD. Share prices have already seen a positive bump. The Catch: The 15% revenue cut is substantial. Companies may need to raise prices for Chinese customers to maintain profit margins. For Chinese Customers: They may face higher costs for AI chips, which could slow down their AI development projects. This arrangement turns export controls into a new source of government revenue, a precedent some experts find risky. It could also provoke China to impose its own restrictions in key sectors, escalating global tech tensions. The deal's long-term stability is uncertain, as the 15% rate could change. This is a powerful example of how global politics, business strategy, and national security are becoming increasingly intertwined, affecting everything from market access to the value of your investments. #Tech #AI #Nvidia #AMD #USChina #ExportControls

Is a sectoral arrangement for semiconductors a viable and desirable way to reconcile national security concerns, the AI agenda, and resilient trade among partners? We at Minerva Technology Futures looked into it. Based on interviews with over 50 experts, a sectoral arrangement -- a relatively new and novel approach to trade architecture -- would need to operate along the following key dimensions: 🌏 Selective partnership: Potentially build on a G7+ grouping. To the extent that security concerns exist, the US could work with partners to enhance #intelligence-sharing and pursue deeper efforts to address concerns like access to advanced chips via #cloud services or to mitigate #smuggling concerns. 📑 Limited scope: "Substantially all" FTAs are no longer workable. Start small -- i.e., avoid the whole value chain that would open the door to all REEs or precursors, at least for now. 📝 Flexible implementation: An initial #arrangement structure would enable faster implementation while maintaining the possibility of finalizing a more permanent and binding structure in the future. 🛰️ Integrated national security considerations: It is no longer politically feasible to separate national security demands from economic issues, meaning export controls and other #natsec provisions will remain on the table. A less formal sectoral arrangement would allow for the negotiation of serious but quietly obtained security-related measures.  🇺🇸 Market access: The major US offer to trading partners is access to the US market, in return for which it seeks national security concessions. Market access would also bolster hallmark priorities like tech-driven advances in #military capabilities. 📡 AI enablement: Throughout the AI value chain, tariff relief for trusted partners could reduce the cost of building new large-scale #datacenters and other advanced computing infrastructure in the US. More than a trade policy innovation, this construct could embody a new approach to economic statecraft in an era of strategic competition. Read more below, and reach out with any questions/comments! https://lnkd.in/eY4UsX6R

The first-ever CTA Trade Week took place at a pivotal moment for U.S. trade policy—and the momentum is real. With yesterday’s announcement of a U.S.-UK trade deal, signs of possible de-escalation with China, and growing bipartisan interest in tariff reform, we’re seeing cracks in the years-long "tariff fever"—and that's good news for: ✅ U.S. consumer tech companies ✅ U.S. manufacturing ✅ U.S. innovation   Trade is a pillar of CTA’s Innovation Agenda. A pro-innovation trade policy empowers U.S. companies to compete globally and deliver cutting-edge technologies to consumers at home. Over three days of high-impact engagement with Capitol Hill, the Administration, and the press, we surfaced key takeaways: 🔹 Certainty drives innovation. Unpredictable trade policy makes it harder for tech companies to invest and grow—especially startups and small businesses. Lawmakers on the Hill get this. 🔹 Tariffs are crushing small businesses. There’s growing recognition that many can’t survive the burden. Momentum is building for a small business exclusions process under IEEPA and Section 232. 🔹 Deals create clarity. Layered tariffs (IEEPA, 232, 301) create compliance chaos. Even with lower rates, the complexity is a drag on competitiveness. Future trade deals must remove—not just repackage—barriers. 🔹 Transparency matters. Companies want to comply. We’re urging longer comment periods, more stakeholder input, and clearer guidance from agencies. CTA fueled the national trade conversation this week with: ➡️ An updated tariff impact study (https://lnkd.in/eCb6jtCR) ➡️ A new white paper on IEEPA/Section 232 tariffs (https://lnkd.in/eVefAeb4) ➡️ A white paper on legacy chips in consumer tech (https://lnkd.in/ehiJiScz) ➡️ Formal comments on the Section 232 semiconductor probe (https://lnkd.in/evW5j8MM) ➡️ Gary Shapiro's latest trade op-ed in RealClearMarkets (https://lnkd.in/ekjfvRyk) We even took the message to the DCA airport today to celebrate the U.S.-UK agreement and our support for open trade. At the Consumer Technology Association, we know the U.S. can lead the world in innovation—if we get trade policy right. But if we wall ourselves off with tariffs, that potential shrinks. Here’s hoping that by #CES2026, the landscape is clearer and a little less… tarrifying! #Trade #USUKTrade #Innovation #Tariffs #SmallBusiness #IEEPA #Section232 #Manufacturing #Semiconductors #GlobalTrade #CTA #CES #TechPolicy #WashingtonDC #FutureOfTech

Taiwan just made a massive U.S. bet. The U.S. and Taiwan reached a new trade agreement that will drive at least $250 billion of Taiwanese investment into American chipmaking and manufacturing capacity. Under the deal, Taiwanese chip and technology companies will invest a minimum of $250 billion to build production capacity in the U.S., backed by $250 billion in government-guaranteed credit from Taiwan. In return, the U.S. will cap reciprocal tariffs on Taiwan at 15%, down from 20%, and commit to zero reciprocal tariffs on generic pharmaceuticals, aircraft components, select natural resources, and key inputs. Context matters. For the past year, chipmakers have been operating under tariff uncertainty tied to shifting U.S. trade policy. This agreement provides clarity and removes a major overhang for companies deciding where to build next-generation semiconductor capacity. The incentives are targeted. Taiwanese firms building U.S. fabs will be allowed to import up to 2.5 times the capacity they are constructing while factories are under development without facing Section 232 tariffs. Once those fabs are completed, companies can continue importing up to 1.5 times their U.S. production capacity. This is the signal shift. The deal strongly incentivizes continued U.S. expansion by Taiwan’s chip champions while preserving their ability to manufacture in Taiwan. It reinforces the U.S. push to onshore leading-edge semiconductor production as AI chips become a core national security and economic priority. TSMC sits at the center of the strategy. The company has already invested roughly $40 billion in Arizona fabs producing chips for major U.S. customers. This agreement makes clear that further U.S. expansion will be supported, not penalized, while supply chains remain globally integrated. The bigger picture is geopolitical. U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that a disruption to Taiwan’s chip industry would pose severe risks to the global economy. This deal reduces exposure by anchoring more advanced production on American soil. The question now is execution. How quickly can this capital translate into real, scalable capacity, and will the U.S. be able to match investment with workforce, infrastructure, and permitting speed #Semiconductors #TSMC #Trade #Manufacturing #AI #Geopolitics #Investing

5 ways the India–EU Trade Agreement strengthens India’s semiconductor journey 🚀Lower Semiconductor Fab Costs by Reducing EU Equipment Import Duties Roughly 65–75% of a fab’s total capital expenditure goes into equipment — lot of it sourced from Europe. If import duties drop by even 5–10%, a $10–15 billion fab can save $500 million to $1 billion in upfront cost. This improves the commercial viability of fabs, OSAT plants, and advanced packaging units in India. Net effect: India becomes a more cost-competitive manufacturing base. 🚀Export Access to the EU’s Massive Electronics Market Creates Chip Demand The EU represents a $700–750 billion electronics market, covering automotive electronics, industrial automation, telecom hardware, and consumer devices. More electronics manufacturing for EU customers means higher demand for Indian-made semiconductors, especially in automotive chips, power devices, sensors, and industrial ICs. Net effect: Stronger downstream demand makes Indian fabs economically sustainable. 🚀Technology Transfer & Joint Semiconductor R&D Accelerate Capability Building India already contributes ~19–20% of the global semiconductor design workforce, but hosts only a small share of advanced process R&D. The trade agreement strengthens joint India–EU R&D in: • Chip design IP • Advanced process nodes • Heterogeneous integration • Packaging technologies • Semiconductor software and PDKs This helps India move beyond design-only toward design + manufacturing + packaging + IP ownership. Net effect: Faster climb up the semiconductor value chain. 🚀Supply Chain Diversification Positions India as a Trusted Chip Partner Both India and the EU want to reduce overdependence on China and Taiwan for chips. The EU has committed €43 billion (~$47 billion) under its Chips Act, while India has allocated $10 billion under the India Semiconductor Mission. With trade alignment, India can become a reliable second-source manufacturing and packaging hub for European automakers, industrial OEMs, and energy companies. Net effect: India gains geopolitical relevance in global chip supply chains. 🚀Boost to European Semiconductor Investment & Manufacturing in India The trade deal improves regulatory clarity, IP protection, and investment confidence — encouraging European chip companies to expand in India. Major commitments already include: • ~$2.7B in semiconductor packaging & testing investments • ~$10–15B fab and foundry project pipelines • ~$1B+ expansion plans by European automotive & power semiconductor firms • Large-scale R&D expansion by EU chip leaders in India This accelerates local ecosystem growth across fabs, ATMP, chip design, materials, and semiconductor equipment servicing. Net effect: India transitions from a chip importer to a chip manufacturing base. ~~~~ If you are looking to invest in semiconductors and need expert insights, drop us a DM.

Taiwan–U.S. Semiconductor Deal Signals Deeper Supply Chain Realignment The U.S. and Taiwan have signed a trade agreement linking $250 billion in Taiwanese investment to lower U.S. tariffs, with a strong focus on semiconductors, according to The Wall Street Journal. Under the deal, tariffs on Taiwanese goods fall to 15% from 20%, with exemptions for companies expanding U.S. operations. TSMC will add multiple new fabs to its Arizona cluster, bringing its total there to roughly a dozen facilities, including advanced manufacturing nodes. The company has already received several billion dollars in subsidies under the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act and recently acquired 900 acres to support further expansion. TSMC plans up to $56 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, underscoring sustained demand for advanced chips used by customers such as Nvidia and Apple, particularly for AI data centers. The agreement aligns with broader U.S. efforts to de-escalate tariff tensions while securing domestic investment. However, skeptics note that most of TSMC’s capacity remains in Taiwan and that shifting a meaningful share of global semiconductor supply to the U.S. could take decades and significant cost. Beyond economics, the deal highlights the strategic role of semiconductors in U.S.–Taiwan relations amid rising geopolitical pressures.

Tariff Update | US + Taiwan Trade Framework Tariffs are the headline. Regulatory alignment & semiconductor strategy are the real story. The US and Taiwan reached an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade that reshapes tariffs, regulatory alignment, and high-tech investment across a $185B trade corridor. Here is what matters operationally: → Tariff structure resets US applies the higher of MFN or 15% on originating Taiwanese goods, while certain aligned products are excluded from reciprocal tariffs. → Taiwan eliminates or reduces 99% of tariff barriers on US goods Expanded access across autos, machinery, chemicals, electrical products, metals, medical products, and key agricultural categories. → Non-tariff barriers meaningfully reduced Taiwan will accept US vehicle safety and emissions standards without additional requirements and accept US FDA authorizations for medical devices and pharmaceuticals. → Semiconductor and strategic sector alignment deepens Taiwan companies plan to expand investment in US semiconductors and electronics manufacturing, with preferential treatment in certain Section 232 semiconductor investigations. More than $84B in planned US purchases from 2025 to 2029 across LNG, crude oil, aircraft, and power equipment. If you operate in semiconductors, autos, medtech, aerospace, energy, or agriculture, this is structural. Your 2026 sourcing model should already reflect it. ➜ Where does this framework hit your supply chain first: cost, compliance, or capital allocation?