Emerging Retail Markets

⚫ The Retail Market Western Analysts Keep Getting Wrong Most retail trend reports look east to China, or north to Scandinavia. They’re missing a third direction entirely. After two decades working, teaching, and consulting across Beirut, Istanbul, and the wider Middle East, I’ve watched the global industry systematically underestimate one of the world’s most sophisticated, most resilient, and most instructive retail markets. Here’s what I mean. The story you’ve heard isn’t wrong — it’s just incomplete. Yes, there are mega-malls. Yes, there is luxury on a scale that stuns visitors. But beneath that spectacle is something far more interesting: a consumer culture that is internationally travelled, digitally native, aesthetically demanding, and deeply rooted in retail traditions that predate the concept of “experiential retail” by centuries. The souk was never just a place to buy things. It was always a place to gather, negotiate, encounter, be seen. What Western consultants are now calling "the future of retail”, the social store, the community-driven space , the Middle East never lost. What I’ve observed across six dimensions surprises most people: → Resilience that Western retailers have never been tested to develop — operating through currency collapses, hyperinflation, political instability, and compound crises → A luxury sensibility that has moved beyond positional signalling toward genuine rarity, craft, and cultural depth — faster than the brands that originated the category → Pop-up formats with deep cultural roots, not imported trends — which means consumers here are *more* demanding of them, not less → The mall as civic infrastructure, not a declining format — because in cities shaped by climate and density, the enclosed retail environment functions as genuine public space → And Beirut — a retail laboratory of extraordinary creativity, where constraint has produced some of the most intelligently curated concept stores and culturally specific retail formats in the world The brands that consistently get it wrong make three mistakes: They arrive with a template. They underinvest in local relationships. And they apply Western performance timelines to a market that moves on its own logic — accelerating and contracting in ways that reward patience and punish rigidity. The Middle East is not catching up to Western retail norms. In several important ways, it is ahead of them. And the capabilities being developed here — agility, cultural intelligence, relationship-based loyalty, resilience under genuine pressure — will be competitively decisive in every market over the coming decades. I’ve written a full piece on this: If retail strategy, physical experience, or emerging markets are in your world, I think it’s worth 10 minutes of your time. #Retail #RetailStrategy #MiddleEast #ConsumerBehaviour #RetailInnovation #PhysicalRetail #Beirut #TopRetailExpert #RetailTrends

At a Croma store in Lucknow last month, a 28-year-old garment trader bought an iPhone 17 Pro for ₹1,34,900 in cash. He pulled out a thick stack of ₹500 notes and paid the salesperson directly. The salesperson had been about to lead with the EMI plan, the way 90 percent of his iPhone customers buy. The trader didn’t need it. His shop in Hazratganj does ₹4 crore in annual revenue. He owns three apartments. He flies to Bangkok every year. And he is invisible to almost every D2C founder building for the Indian middle class. He is also where the actual growth is. Bain estimates nearly three out of every five new online shoppers in India since 2020 came from Tier 3 or smaller towns, while Unicommerce reports Tier 2 and 3 cities will contribute 66 percent of new D2C orders in FY26. Deloitte data shows over 60 percent of all e-commerce transactions now originate outside metros. Knight Frank’s 2026 retail index has Chandigarh topping the country’s international brand penetration rankings despite its 1.3 million population, with Lucknow and Mangaluru emerging as Tier 2 retail hubs alongside the metros. The Indian e-retail market is on track to triple from $60 billion in 2024 to $190 billion by 2030, with most of that growth happening in places founders have never visited. What founders miss is that the Tier 2/3 customer isn’t a smaller version of the Bangalore customer. She is a different customer entirely. Her income often comes from a family business, so she rarely depends on EMI and often pays in cash. Her aspirational reference isn’t a Mumbai fashion creator but the wife of the local jeweller in Indore with 80,000 Instagram followers, and the wedding her cousin had in Udaipur last December. She doesn’t shop on Nykaa first. She walks into Reliance Trends or the local boutique. The metro D2C playbook treats her as a future version of the Bandra customer. She is not. This isn’t about metro founders being arrogant. They built brands for the customers they could see. The 24-year-old Indiranagar marketing associate is real. The Lucknow garment trader is real too. They just don’t show up in the same Meta audience, the same Instagram comments, or the same founder WhatsApp group. The metro founder optimised for the customer she had access to. The problem is that her access map was 33 percent of the future market, not 66 percent. The shift required in 2026 isn’t a marketing change. It is a research change. The brands winning Tier 2/3 will be the ones who actually go there. Not for a quarterly offsite in Goa, but to Indore, Coimbatore, Surat, Lucknow, Visakhapatnam, to sit with the 32-year-old shop owner who buys cash and watches no Instagram. To understand why she trusts Lahori Zeera’s bottle but not the metro founder’s serum. The Bangalore founder building her next product around HSR Layout is solving for 33 percent. The founder building around Coimbatore is building for 67.

🧐 If China sneezes, luxury catches a cold. But while everyone looks East, India just pulled off its greatest retail coup: stealing both Saks Fifth Avenue and Galeries Lafayette in less than six months. The game is on: Reliance Retail partners with Saks Fifth Avenue, just a few quarters after Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd.'s alliance with Galeries Lafayette. This isn't just market expansion - it's a race to define India's luxury retail future based on a simple equation: 12% organized retail + 461M digital shoppers + 145 billionaires = unlimited potential. India presents a fascinating paradox. Despite being Asia's second-largest UHNWI market after China, with 932M smartphone users and universal digital banking through Aadhaar authentication, only 12% of retail is organized. Even more striking: luxury customers still shop abroad - not for prices, but for choice (flagships in Dubai are more exciting than in Delhi from that perspective). Current infrastructure hasn't kept pace with consumer sophistication: ▶️ Malls house boutiques but lack cross-brand discovery ▶️ Conservative brand selections compared to overseas ▶️ No unified luxury shopping experience ▶️ Limited curation of brands, experiences, and F&B ▶️ Brands present but with restricted assortments The unified luxury shopping experience - the art of curating brands, experiences, and F&B under one roof - simply doesn't exist yet. Two retail giants are positioning for the future: 💥 Reliance brings massive scale (12,711 stores, 7,000 cities) and digital expertise (JioMart Digital ecosystem) 💥 Aditya Birla offers luxury credentials (The Collective) and designer partnerships (Sabyasachi, Masaba Gupta) Both are partnering with global players who excel at brand introduction and luxury experiences. The prize? A market projected to reach €30bn by 2030, with uniquely Indian characteristics. Today's Indian luxury consumer is globally exposed yet proud of local heritage, digitally native with 461M using mobile transactions, and young (average age 28.4 years). They seamlessly blend international and traditional preferences. This isn't just about selling luxury - it's about creating new retail paradigms. The winning formula will combine department store expertise in curation, digital-first approaches for the smartphone generation, and deep understanding of local fashion preferences, all while scaling beyond tier-1 cities. No wonder that India has made, albeit discreetly, the headlines recently, be it at Inside Retail Asia, The Business of Fashion or that the country is the weekly topic of The MBS Group, with Moira Benigson and Arushi K. asking the same question: we know that the next 24 months will reshape India's luxury retail landscape. First-mover advantage matters less than getting the model right, but who will do so? 🇮🇳 PS/ If you want to talk to an expert, reach out Kumar Rajagopalan at Retailers Association of India (RAI). His knowledge of the Indian market is fascinating!

The Next E-Commerce Boom: It Won’t Come From Where You Expect 🇹🇷🇧🇷🇷🇺🇿🇦 The next big wave of e-commerce growth won’t be coming from where most would expect. According to DHL’s latest forecast (2025–2029), markets like Turkey, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are leading the way — with CAGR growth rates over 10%, far outpacing more mature economies. What’s driving this shift? • Expanding internet and smartphone penetration: Mobile-first adoption is accelerating e-commerce reach, especially across emerging regions. • Growing middle classes: Economic development is lifting millions into new consumer categories, driving demand for accessible, digital-first shopping experiences. • Better payment infrastructure: Local fintech innovation (mobile wallets, instant payment solutions) makes online shopping smoother and more accessible to wider populations. • Massive investments in logistics and delivery networks: Companies — both global and local — are heavily investing in last-mile delivery, making previously hard-to-reach customers part of the mainstream economy. • Cultural leapfrogging: Many of these regions are bypassing traditional brick-and-mortar retail models entirely, moving straight into mobile e-commerce ecosystems. Meanwhile, even established markets like the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom will still experience healthy e-commerce expansion — but growth will be steadier and more innovation-driven rather than sheer volume-driven. The takeaway? Brands, retailers, and logistics providers who want to capture the next decade of e-commerce growth must look beyond the obvious. Understanding the local drivers — not just deploying a copy-paste global strategy — will be the difference between success and irrelevance. The future of e-commerce is more global, more dynamic, and more decentralized than ever before. Are we ready for it? #Ecommerce #EmergingMarkets #DigitalTransformation #Logistics #GrowthStrategy #DHL #GlobalBusiness #FutureOfCommerce Visual by DHL eCommerce !

🔍 Detecting Emerging Submarkets Everyone talks about emerging markets, but few can quantify what’s actually emerging. Across cities, the same leading indicators appear long before a neighborhood “takes off.” They’re not opinions, they’re patterns in the data. 📍Transit & Mobility New or expanded transit corridors consistently precede rent growth and absorption spikes. Improved accessibility reshapes commute patterns, reduces friction between residential and employment nodes, and redefines the functional trade area. These mobility shifts often signal urban reorientation, where convenience and connectivity begin to reprice land value before new construction even starts. 🛍️ Lifestyle Retail Clusters of cafés, boutique fitness studios, and local dining concepts often mark the first wave of consumer confidence in an area. They reflect changing spending patterns and social behavior long before institutional retail arrives. In many metros, this retail diversification correlates strongly with rising disposable income and household formation, the building blocks of long-term neighborhood repositioning. 🏗️ Permit Activity A surge in small-scale multifamily and mixed-use permits signals developer conviction, not just demographic momentum. Permits represent forward-looking bets on rent potential, absorption, and construction feasibility. When permit density accelerates ahead of population growth, it often indicates anticipated demand, as builders see opportunities that static census data hasn’t yet captured. 📊 Demographic Churn Neighborhoods evolve not just through growth, but through replacement. Even with flat population totals, shifts in education, income, and household composition reshape purchasing power and demand elasticity. This demographic turnover is one of the clearest early indicators of urban renewal cycles; quieter than cranes, but just as powerful in forecasting repricing. Each signal alone is anecdotal. Together, they form a quantitative fingerprint of transformation. Because neighborhood change doesn’t start with headlines, it starts quietly, in data. 💡Smart investors don’t chase what’s hot. They detect where it’s warming up. #RealEstate #PropTech #LocationIntelligence #Multifamily #UrbanEconomics #EmergingMarkets #DataDriven #MarketResearch #SiteSelection #Investing

Chinese retail brands are quietly becoming some of the most ambitious regional players in APAC. For years, conversations around retail expansion in Asia focused on Japan, Korea or Western franchises. Today, a growing number of China-born retail brands like Chagee, Miniso, Luckin Coffee, Mixue, Li-Ning, ANTA and more are moving decisively beyond their home market and doing so with remarkable speed and confidence. What’s driving this rise? - Highly systemised operating models, from vertically integrated supply chains to repeatable store roll-out playbooks - Data-led localisation, assortments, pricing, formats and customer journeys tailored market by market, not copy-paste expansion - Regional mindset from day one, Southeast Asia, Korea, Japan and the Middle East are often embedded early into growth strategies - Brand sophistication, modern design, strong storytelling and clear category positioning that resonates with younger, digitally native consumers We’re now seeing Chinese retail brands not just entering APAC markets, but competing head-on with established global names and in some cases, out-executing them on speed, cost discipline and consumer relevance. The next wave of APAC retail growth won’t be defined by origin, but by who can scale intelligently, localise deeply, and execute relentlessly. China’s retail ecosystem is producing more of these players than many realise and the region is taking notice. #ChineseRetail #APACExpansion #ConsumerBrands #AsiaGrowth #RetailTrends #ChinaGoingGlobal, #GRIT, #Freshlybaked

British retailers are rethinking global growth strategies as tariffs rise and domestic demand weakens.   UK sales growth is sluggish, the cost of doing business is rising, and new trade barriers are making established export markets less predictable. This is accelerating a quiet revolution in UK retail export strategies.   Our latest Retail Economics research with ESW finds that more than three-quarters of UK retail exporters are now actively exploring new international markets beyond the US – driven in part by the recent introduction of 10% tariffs on UK goods entering the US.   We’re seeing a clear pivot towards high-growth regions that offer both near-term stability and longer-term strategic value.   Since Brexit in 2021, exports to the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and non-EU Europe have collectively increased by £1.1 billion: ▶️       The Middle East and North Africa have led this shift, with exports rising by 34% (+£646 million). ▶️       The UAE is now the fastest-growing non-EU retail export market, supported by a strong expat population demanding British brands and underlined by expansion plans from retailers such as Primark and CTRNE. ▶️       Western Europe (outside the EU) is also gaining ground – up 15% – as UK brands find opportunities in markets like Norway and Switzerland.   This growth builds on the perception of UK brands overseas. In our interviews with retailers, two in five cite the UK’s well-regulated product safety and quality regime as a key competitive advantage abroad.   Additionally, the UK’s digital maturity enables retailers to deliver competitive online and omnichannel experiences in new markets.   These home-grown advantages provide UK retailers a competitive edge in high-value markets.   Read more on key export markets for UK retailers in our latest research, available to download below: https://lnkd.in/gUaJziM2

Most of the world is still debating real-time payments. Brazil and South Africa already moved on to what comes after. This Nuvei report looks at how these two countries are using payments to grow online commerce, and why they’re no longer side markets for global merchants. Here are my key takeaways: 🔶 PIX already accounts for a third of ecommerce payments in Brazil. It’s fast, free, and used everywhere from big cities to rural towns. 🔶 PayShap in South Africa is doing something similar, but through mobile-first rails that reach users who never had formal bank accounts. 🔶 Brazil’s cross-border ecommerce is projected to reach $51B by 2027, and South Africa’s is doubling, despite regulatory hurdles and shipping delays. 🔶 In Brazil, domestic credit cards still matter, especially because of installment plans. Ignore them and you lose the middle class. 🔶 South African consumers expect price transparency, flexible payments, and localised platforms, mainly in rural and multilingual areas. 🔶 Both markets are seeing digital wallets rise, SnapScan, PicPay, VodaPay, yet PIX and PayShap are pulling ahead due to lower costs and instant transfers. 🔶 Fraud concerns are still high, especially in Brazil. Merchants that show security cues, offer clear refunds, and support trusted methods build faster traction. 🔶 There’s still friction: high import fees, patchy rural logistics, and tight regulations. But merchants that use local delivery networks and MoR partners can figure around them. 🔶 None of this works if you copy-paste global playbooks. What wins here is adapting to the rhythm of local consumers—from social commerce patterns to payment habits. Brazil and South Africa are showing what practical, accessible ecommerce can look like when payments get out of the way. #fintech #payments #emergingmarkets #couchonomics #embeddedfinance #digitalassets #futureofmoney #futureoffinance NORBr Onalytica Favikon ⁠Global Finance & Technology Network Thinkers360 - ⁠- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 👍 Hit like ♻️ Share it with your network 📢 Drop a comment 🎙️ Check out my podcast Couchonomics with Arjun on YouTube 📖 Get my weekly newsletter on LinkedIn: Couchonomics Crunch 🕺💃 In the MENA region? Join our Fintech Tuesdays community. 🤝 Let's connect! - ⁠- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

India is no longer just an “emerging” market. It’s a high-growth engine for global consumer brands. According to Bain & Co.’s latest report, India is now the third-largest contributor to consumer product growth among emerging markets. Historically, India was seen as a tough market to crack ·  Diverse & dispersed consumer base ·  Fragmented & complex channel landscape dominated by traditional trade ·  High prevalence of unorganized competitors operating at low price points However, the new reality is different · Rapid digital adoption and widespread smartphone and broadband penetration have enabled companies to effectively reach India’s diverse population · E-commerce and quick commerce have grown 2–3 times faster in value than traditional and modern trade channels in India, diminishing the need for an extensive traditional trade network to enter the market. · Increasing affluence is creating greater demand for branded products and consumers are not shying away from spending on premium products. As per the report, in the last five years, premium smartphones achieved over 40% CAGR. The real story here isn’t just about market potential—it’s about market insight. Brands that are investing in understanding Indian consumers are laughing their way to the banks. Indian affiliates of multinational consumer product companies are delivering total shareholder returns between two to six times higher than their global parent companies. Key takeaway: India isn’t a copy-paste market. It’s a reimagine-and-rebuild market. The brands that thrive here are the ones that build with India-first thinking—not just India-next ambition. #India #ConsumerInsights #BrandStrategy #Marketing #EmergingMarkets #MNC #GrowthStrategy #BainReport https://lnkd.in/dqMfdumg Link to the report in comments section Image Source : Bain & Co.’s report

Kering put a world map in front of its shareholders and circled six emerging markets. Five of the six map onto the BRICS bloc, as members or partners. Only Mexico sits outside. That exception gives the bet away: this is not about a bloc, it is about where new luxury spending is forming. The map reads potential, and stays quiet on what sits under each circle. So read underneath. China, kept outside the 6-Pack, is stabilising, not recovering, with confidence pinned by a property crisis and a shrinking aspirational base. The Middle East was 2025's strongest luxury region. It is also where Kering shut stores across the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar during the Q1 conflict involving Iran, the same region it then circled as an opportunity. India, the most credible long-term story, grows near 7% while sitting under US tariffs of up to 50%, the steepest in Asia. Southeast Asia is sold as a demographic frontier, yet its engine, Indonesia's middle class, shrank from 21.5% of the population in 2019 to 17.1% in 2024. Brazil grew about 8% in local currency, on pre-election stimulus, rates at their highest since 2006, and debt nearing 95% of GDP. Africa is anchored on Nigeria, whose millionaire base fell 47% in a decade, rates near 27%, the money actually growing in Morocco and Mauritius. Mexico rests on a nearshoring boom that shed 127,000 manufacturing jobs in 2025, with growth the OECD has cut toward 0.6% as US tariffs bite. None of this makes the map wrong. Geography is back on the luxury agenda. But the plan behind that map, unveiled in Florence in April, put figures and dates on almost everything, recurring margin more than doubled by 2028, a billion euros of inventory out, 250 stores closed, a reference player by 2030. The geography got circles. Sequencing these six unequal, fragile markets by what each can contribute while the core resets is the one number the map leaves blank, and it is the gap that still sits behind Gucci's eleventh straight quarter of decline. #LuxuryStrategy #Kering #EmergingMarkets