Energy Policy Issues

Energy independence sounds simple. It is not. For decades, Europe treated Russian gas as a safe bet. Cheap, reliable, and politically fine, until it wasn't. One war changed that overnight. That is the trap with energy dependence. It is never really about today's relationship. It is about whether that relationship survives the next twenty or thirty years, through leadership changes, conflicts, and shifting alliances. Nobody signs a gas contract expecting betrayal. But history is full of "safe" partners who stopped being safe. With development of the US and Saudi Arabia signing a civil nuclear cooperation agreement. It gives American firms priority access to build and supply Saudi Arabia's nuclear program. Also very interesting move, given the renewables opportunity for Saudi - wind, solar. This move diversifies the portfolio and thus strengthens its resilience. My view: this is not just an energy deal. It is a bet, by both sides, on who they want holding influence in the region for the next fifty years and how resilient they are to global shocks. The US secures a foothold in Saudi energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia secures technology and legitimacy without needing to lean on Russia or China for it. Is this the right call? Depends who you ask. Nonproliferation experts are nervous about enrichment pathways. Industry sees jobs and a multi decade contract. Both are right, from where they sit. Energy independence is not a moral position. It is a national interest position. Every country, however close the friendship looks on paper, will eventually optimise for what keeps its lights on and its economy growing. That is not cynicism, it is just how nations behave when the stakes are this high. The question worth asking is not “who is our friend today.” It is “what are we willing to pay now, so that question doesn’t matter in 2050.” #EnergyIndependence #NuclearEnergy #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity #USSaudiRelations #Nonproliferation #GlobalEnergy #EnergyPolicy #StrategicAutonomy #FutureOfEnergy #MiddleEastPolicy

⚡Is Australia's energy market on the brink of a major transformation? Recent developments suggest significant shifts in Australia's energy landscape. First of all, speculation has kicked off about a potential merger between EnergyAustralia and Alinta Energy. Such a union could create a $10 billion-plus entity, potentially reshaping the electricity and gas supply sectors by consolidating the third and fourth-largest players. It's been argued that such a merger would be able to better fund the transition away from coal-fired power generation for both companies and allow them to compete more effectively with industry giants like Origin Energy and AGL Energy. Secondly, a consortium led by Abu Dhabi's ADNOC Group, including The Carlyle Group, has proposed a $30 billion acquisition of Santos, one of Australia's largest gas producers. This proposal has sparked debates about national interest, energy security, and the implications of foreign ownership of critical infrastructure. Do you think such mergers and acquisitions lead to more efficient energy transitions, or could they stifle competition and innovation? And how do we balance the benefits of foreign capital with the need to maintain control over our energy resources? What are your thoughts on these developments? How should Australian companies navigate these components of the energy transition?

Energy security is more than an energy policy; it is an economic strategy The reported plans by incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham to accelerate the development of existing North Sea oil and gas projects have reignited the UK's energy debate. In my view, this is not simply about oil and gas. It is about building a resilient economy. Recent events have fundamentally changed how governments think about energy. COVID-19 exposed the fragility of global supply chains. Russia's invasion of Ukraine reshaped Europe's energy landscape, while continued instability in the Middle East has demonstrated how quickly geopolitical events can disrupt global energy markets. Energy security is therefore no longer just an environmental or political issue. It is a commercial, economic and national security priority. Reliable energy underpins manufacturing, healthcare, transport, defence, digital infrastructure and every critical supply chain. Without secure and affordable energy, investment slows, costs rise, inflation persists and industrial competitiveness weakens. The debate should not be framed as oil and gas versus renewables. The real challenge is ensuring the UK can transition to a low-carbon economy without compromising energy resilience. Supporting existing North Sea developments does not undermine net-zero ambitions. The UK will continue to rely on oil and gas for years to come. The strategic question is whether those resources should come from domestic production or greater dependence on imports. There is also a significant economic opportunity. The North Sea is evolving into an integrated energy ecosystem, supporting offshore wind, carbon capture, hydrogen, subsea engineering and other emerging industries. Investment today can preserve highly skilled jobs, strengthen industrial capability and accelerate the UK's next phase of economic growth. The countries that succeed over the next two decades will not simply be those that decarbonise the fastest. They will be those that balance energy security, supply chain resilience, industrial competitiveness and sustainability. If the new government adopts that balanced approach, this could become far more than an energy policy. It could become one of the UK's most important industrial strategies. Therefore, energy security is not the destination. It is the foundation upon which economic resilience is built. #EnergySecurity #NorthSea #SupplyChain #CommercialStrategy #EnergyTransition #Infrastructure #Leadership #UKEconomy

My article in the latest issue of India Today on why India must take bold and ambitious steps to accelerate its energy transition, not as a matter of climate ambition, but as a strategic necessity for long term energy independence. The only durable answer is to reduce the volume of energy that India needs to import: by building 1500 GW of domestic renewable capacity, by electrifying transport at scale and by treating the entire clean energy supply chain, from mineral processing to battery manufacturing, as a matter of national security.

#Europe ’s energy problem is no longer about prices or supply. It is about agency. Recent debates after Davos - and the unexpected diplomatic turbulence around Greenland - have brought this question into sharper focus. Europe is once again confronting a familiar constraint: decisions shaping its energy and security environment are increasingly taken elsewhere. Much of the commentary treats these episodes as isolated geopolitical frictions or short-term policy disputes. That framing misses the deeper pattern. In a world increasingly structured by #petrostates and #electrostates, energy is no longer just a commodity or a transition pathway. It is an instrument of power, leverage, and technological positioning. The EU finds itself embedded in both architectures - reliant on external suppliers for flexibility and security, while simultaneously dependent on foreign clean-tech ecosystems for its electrification goals. In the article I co-authored with Anne-Sophie Corbeau for Energy World at The National Interest, we argue that Europe’s core challenge is not choosing between hydrocarbons and renewables. It is recognizing that energy sovereignty today is about control over architectures, not ownership of resources. Without a strategy that treats energy systems as geopolitical infrastructure - spanning fuels, technologies, supply chains, finance, and regulation - Europe risks remaining a rule-taker in a world increasingly shaped by others. 🔗 The EU in a Petrostates and Electrostates World https://lnkd.in/e9FEC9CU

Australia must decide whether it wants to control its energy future or surrender it. The takeover bid for Santos by Middle Eastern giant ADNOC is a stark wake-up call for Australia. Over the past decade, Santos, once a cornerstone of Australia’s energy independence, has been steadily undermined by protracted regulatory delays and a relentless wave of activist-led legal challenges targeting its natural gas projects. Now, we face the absurd situation of building LNG import terminals to bring in gas from overseas, while sitting on vast undeveloped reserves at home. This is not just bad policy; it’s a direct threat to our national energy security. In an increasingly volatile and geopolitically unstable world, energy security is not optional, it is essential for economic resilience and national sovereignty. If we continue to ignore the warning signs, we risk sleepwalking into an energy crisis that cannot be fixed when the lights go out. Australia must decide whether it wants to control its energy future or surrender it.

Energy Future at the heart of Ukraine's sovereignty In Kyiv, it was impossible last week to ignore talking about the energy supply as the country is racing to secure enough heat and electricity for the winter. But the challenge goes on beyond this winter - without a secure supply of energy people leave, economy breaks, politics cracks. Without energy sovereignty Ukraine’s sovereignty is simply not possible. My visit to Kyiv overlapped with a forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine predicting an increase in emigration of up to 700,000 people in 2024-2025 “due to the significant destruction of Ukraine's energy system, accompanied by prolonged power outages and increasing the risk of the heating season”. The promise of stable energy supply is critical to convince Ukrainians to remain in their country. To bring those who already left back as well. This tragic war is a reminder for all of us that a modern society cannot exist without energy. The consequences of a broken energy system are not measured in blackouts but in number of people leaving the country. The aggressor knows it well. Since April 9200 MW of the country’s energy generation was destroyed: around 80–90% of Ukraine’s energy generation capacity at thermal power plants and around 45% at hydroelectric power plants has been lost. Getting international support for now is critical. And attracting private capital to Ukraine’s devastated energy systems will be key for its swift recovery. Without energy there is no economic activity. The country is ruined. Recent history of Ukraine shows that excessive reliance on oil and gas imports can contribute to spoil politics and impact economy. Healthy economy is based on market prices and free competition. Already much has been done: Energy Community Artur Lorkowski Annual Implementation Report from 2023 estimated that the progress on the markets and integration reform cluster was at 69%. But the remaining part is still critical to be achieved. Transparent energy markets will be as much of the cornerstone for strong and independent Ukraine as today its military forces are. We discussed next steps for the National Energy And Climate Plan just been approved by Yulia Svyrydenko, Ministry of Economy of Ukraine & Oleksii Sobolev, CFA as well as the expert team of Olena Pavlenko, MinEnergy led by German Galushchenko, MinInfrastructure led by Vasyl Shkurakov, MinEnvironment under Ruslan Strilets together with Viktoriia Kyreieva and MinAgriculture with Taras Vysotskyi were all contributing to the plan and are now focused on its delivery along the path of European integration: ·       How to combine surviving the winter & building future energy system? ·       What governance and reforms are still necessary to kickstart investments? ·       How to attract new financial investors and keep engagement of institutional donors? Ukraine’s energy is now at the heart of Ukraine’s survival. It will continue to remain at the heart of Ukraine's sovereignty.

In my latest essay in Foreign Policy, I examine current dynamics in global gas markets, including Europe's energy security situation (and why it is too soon for EU officials to take a victory lap for getting off of Russian gas), the Biden administration's recent LNG export study, and the potential challenges the incoming Trump administration could face as gas demand for both power generation and exports surges in the next few years. To ensure energy prices stay low for U.S. firms and households—a key element of the country’s competitive advantage—I argue that U.S. officials on both sides of the aisle should avoid politicizing gas exports, mitigate the climate impacts of gas, make it easier to build new infrastructure through permitting reform, and support the rapid expansion of a diverse mix of energy sources that include not only oil and gas, but also renewables and nuclear power. https://lnkd.in/eRaBJDvg

*Rethinking India's Energy Tech Strategy: Time to Cut Overdependence on the West* Every time there’s a geopolitical friction, the tariff stick comes swinging from Washington. Be it trade, defence, digital economy, or energy — India finds itself pressured, even bullied, into concessions. The latest threats once again expose a hard truth: India must reduce its overdependence on U.S. services, particularly in strategic sectors like oil and gas. *Oil & Gas Industry: A Sector with Untapped Domestic Capability* India spends hundreds of crores annually on foreign software and service providers in the exploration and development (E&P) sector. This, despite the availability of world-class indigenous talent in geosciences, data processing, software development, and field services. India boasts of being a global leader in software. So why aren't Indian IT and energy-tech companies being encouraged or mandated to develop and deploy homegrown solutions for:  Seismic interpretation  Reservoir modelling  Fracture design  AI/ML applications in subsurface analysis  Geothermal & CCS tech integration Foreign vendors often provide black-box systems with minimal transparency and heavy recurring costs — leading to data lock-in and strategic vulnerabilities. *A Disconnect in Policy & Practice* The government promotes “Atmanirbhar Bharat” and urges citizens to buy Indian-made products. But the very ministries and PSUs leading the charge in energy still rely on Western tools and consultants, often sidelining capable Indian firms. *What Needs to Change?* 1. Policy Mandate: Introduce mandatory % of indigenous software/services in every E&P tender. 2. Funding & Incubation: Encourage startups and mid-sized firms to enter the oilfield tech space through grants and public-private partnerships. 3. Strategic Procurement Reform: Reduce dependency on foreign systems, especially for critical upstream software and data analytics. 4. Build National Energy Tech Stack: Just like UPI or Aadhaar — create an open-source national platform for subsurface data integration and visualization. *India Must Act — Now* The U.S. may be an important partner, but sovereign capability in strategic sectors must not be compromised. Energy security includes data independence, technology autonomy, and resilience against external coercion. The time has come to encourage Indian minds to build Indian solutions for India’s energy future. We’ve done it in space, IT, and fintech. The oil and gas sector must be next.

"The long range economic and national security advantage of the United States are the new stakes of electric-power sector policy. " Really excited to publish "Powering the Commanding Heights", a new paper in which I try to establish the strategic context of electricity demand growth. Despite so much ink spilled over specific issues --AI demand, nuclear, transmission, emissions, etc.-- the policymaking conversation in DC has yet to really grapple with the profound long range implications of a new era of electricity demand growth. Full paper ⏩ https://lnkd.in/eYSHfMNX Some basic premises for a new era of energy strategy: 1. The most strategically valuable technologies and industries of the future are uniquely electricity intensive. Powering the commanding economic and technological heights of the twenty-first century should be the basis of American energy strategy and policymaking. 2. Sustained electricity demand growth signals an increasingly fundamental role for the electric power sector in delivering overall U.S. economic outcomes. The electricity intensity of U.S. GDP could increase for the first time since the early 1990s. 3. The strategic energy advantage of the future will be in the capacity to deliver electricity at unprecedented scale, unconstrained by infrastructure or generation capacity, and to do so at globally competitive rates, all while maintaining world-leading reliability and declining emissions intensity 4. Broad based permitting reform to allow for faster, cheaper deployment of infrastructure. Strategic scale transmission capacity to deliver faster interconnection of both new supply and load. A long-term nuclear expansion program. Any hope of a century of progress and sustained American leadership implies and relies on a radically scaled electric-power sector. This holds true whether your ordering objective is geopolitical competition, climate, or domestic socio-economic revitalization. Functionally, this means the worn out and well tread policy debates and positions that have defined electric-power sector policy making for the last two decades plus are terribly out of date. All parties, all serious policymakers, need to come to the table and hash out solutions for scaling investment, innovation, and injecting dynamism into a woefully out of date policy and regulatory ecosystem.